[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 30 09:30:47 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jun             01 Jul             02 Jul
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   123/76             120/72             117/69

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jun was R0. Solar region 
AR4122 (N13E04, beta) is the only region on the disk of appreciable 
size. Other solar regions are very small. There are currently 
ten solar regions on the visible solar disk. Old solar region 
AR4105 may be returning to the southeast solar limb but plasma 
emission does not presently appear that significant. The recent 
solar background X-ray flux has been relatively low and steady 
in the B5-B7 range. Erupting solar prominences were observed 
in GOES SUVI 304 imagery on/behind the northwest solar limb from 
29/1000UT and the southwest solar limb from 29/1450UT. The later 
eruption may have extended back from the southwestern solar limb 
across the disk to approximately S50W50, with some on disk solar 
filament motion observed in SDO304. Solar activity is expected 
to be R0 over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. No significantly Earth directed 
CMEs have been observed. A faint CME was observed to the northwest 
from 29/1248UT and a brighter CME to the southwest from 29/1612UT, 
associated with the on/behind the western limb prominence eruptions. 
Due to the more western/solar limb location these CMEs they are 
not expected to reach the Earth. The second filament eruption/CME 
has been modelled as an Earth miss. S0 solar radiation storm 
conditions were observed on UT day 29-Jun. S0 solar radiation 
storm conditions are expected over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. The solar 
wind speed continues to decline due to the reducing influence 
of a solar coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged 
from 580 to 450 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the 
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar 
wind is expected to further gradually decline in coming days. 
Over the last three days the US GOES satellite has observed an 
elevated flux of electrons with an energy of >2MeV which can 
increase the satellite internal charging risk for geosynchronous 
satellites.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11222222
      Cocos Island         4   11121122
      Darwin               6   12222222
      Townsville           6   21222222
      Learmonth            8   21322123
      Alice Springs        6   11222222
      Gingin               9   20323223
      Canberra             5   11212221
      Kennaook Cape Grim   7   11322222
      Hobart               6   11222222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     8   11223232
      Casey               10   22324222
      Mawson              41   33443367

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            15   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2233 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jun     8    G0
01 Jul     6    G0
02 Jul     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 29-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally 
expected over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal 
on UT day 29-Jun, with degraded conditions at high latitudes 
at times. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be 
generally normal 30-Jun to 02-Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 Jun    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jun    85    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul    85    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul    85    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 29-Jun were 30% depressed to near predicted 
values. Spread-F was observed at Townsville, Canberra and Hobart 
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed 
to near predicted values over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 613 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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