[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 29 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Jun 30 09:30:47 AEST 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 128/81
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 123/76 120/72 117/69
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Jun was R0. Solar region
AR4122 (N13E04, beta) is the only region on the disk of appreciable
size. Other solar regions are very small. There are currently
ten solar regions on the visible solar disk. Old solar region
AR4105 may be returning to the southeast solar limb but plasma
emission does not presently appear that significant. The recent
solar background X-ray flux has been relatively low and steady
in the B5-B7 range. Erupting solar prominences were observed
in GOES SUVI 304 imagery on/behind the northwest solar limb from
29/1000UT and the southwest solar limb from 29/1450UT. The later
eruption may have extended back from the southwestern solar limb
across the disk to approximately S50W50, with some on disk solar
filament motion observed in SDO304. Solar activity is expected
to be R0 over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. No significantly Earth directed
CMEs have been observed. A faint CME was observed to the northwest
from 29/1248UT and a brighter CME to the southwest from 29/1612UT,
associated with the on/behind the western limb prominence eruptions.
Due to the more western/solar limb location these CMEs they are
not expected to reach the Earth. The second filament eruption/CME
has been modelled as an Earth miss. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on UT day 29-Jun. S0 solar radiation
storm conditions are expected over 30-Jun to 02-Jul. The solar
wind speed continues to decline due to the reducing influence
of a solar coronal hole wind stream. The solar wind speed ranged
from 580 to 450 km/s and is currently near 450 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -4 nT. The solar
wind is expected to further gradually decline in coming days.
Over the last three days the US GOES satellite has observed an
elevated flux of electrons with an energy of >2MeV which can
increase the satellite internal charging risk for geosynchronous
satellites.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 11222222
Cocos Island 4 11121122
Darwin 6 12222222
Townsville 6 21222222
Learmonth 8 21322123
Alice Springs 6 11222222
Gingin 9 20323223
Canberra 5 11212221
Kennaook Cape Grim 7 11322222
Hobart 6 11222222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Jun :
Macquarie Island 8 11223232
Casey 10 22324222
Mawson 41 33443367
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 15 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2233 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 8 G0
01 Jul 6 G0
02 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jun. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were fair to normal
on UT day 29-Jun, with degraded conditions at high latitudes
at times. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be
generally normal 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 94
Jun 109
Jul 107
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 85 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 85 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 85 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Jun were 30% depressed to near predicted
values. Spread-F was observed at Townsville, Canberra and Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be 15-20% depressed
to near predicted values over 30-Jun to 02-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 613 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list