[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 June 25 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Mon Jun 23 09:30:54 AEST 2025

SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 125/78

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jun was R0, with no significant 
solar flares. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions 
on the solar disk. AR4117 (S14E12, beta) and AR4118 (S13E21, 
beta) have both grown in the past day, with both spots appearing 
to reach maturation but 4117 showing more complexity. Solar activity 
is expected to be R0-R1 over 23-25 Jun.

 No Earth directed CMEs were observed in available imagery on UT day 22-Jun. 
Plasma movement can be seen from 1140 UT from near AR4117 heading to the
southeast 
in GOES SUVI 304, however no CME signature can be seen in coronagraphs. 

S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jun. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 23-25 Jun. 

The solar wind environment on UT day 22-Jun was mostly steady. 
The solar wind speed ranged from 598 to 439 km/s and is currently 
trending downwards. The peak total interplanetary field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component range (Bz) 
was +4 to -5 nT. The solar wind environment may be settled on 
23-Jun but become enhanced over 24-25 Jun due to further coronal 
hole activity.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32211121
      Cocos Island         4   22111120
      Darwin               7   33211122
      Townsville           7   33211122
      Learmonth            6   32221121
      Alice Springs        5   32211021
      Gingin               9   42112231
      Canberra             5   32211111
      Kennaook Cape Grim   6   32212121
      Hobart               6   32212111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     5   21123210
      Casey               10   43321221
      Mawson              30   64533244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2311 3423     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    10    G0
24 Jun    12    G0
25 Jun    14    G0-G1

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day 22-Jun 
in the Australian region. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are 
expected over 23-25 Jun, with isolated periods of G1 possible 
towards the end of the period due to coronal hole activity.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
25 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions were normal to degraded 
on UT day 22-Jun, with the most prolofic degradations being in 
the northern hemisphere. Conditions began to trend to normal 
in the second half of the day. HF radio propagation conditions 
are expected to be normal to mildly degraded, particularly during 
local nighttime hours, over 23-25 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
22 Jun    79

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      94
Jun      109
Jul      107

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
24 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed
25 Jun    85    Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed

COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on 21 
June and is current for 22-24 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jun were near predicted 
values to 15% depressed, particularly during local nighttime 
and dawn hours. Mild degradations were observed in the northern 
expected to be near predicted values over 23-25 Jun to 20% depressed 
during local night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 516 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:   161000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au