[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 December 25 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Fri Dec 26 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 170/124 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Dec was R0 with no solar
flares. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions on
the solar disk. Active regions (AR) 4317 (N11E09, beta) and 4321
(S11W23, beta) have shown movement but overall not increased
in complexity. Any signs of a delta spot forming in 4321 have
decayed. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 26-28 Dec.
No CMEs were observed on UT day 25-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 25-Dec.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 26-28 Dec.
The solar wind environment on UT day 25-Dec was mildly disturbed
due to the continued effects of a coronal hole. The solar wind
speed ranged from 550 to 650 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT and the north-south IMF component
range was +4 to -3 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced
on 26-Dec before returning to background levels over 27-28 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22322212
Cocos Island 5 22222201
Darwin 8 22322213
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 10 32323203
Alice Springs 7 22322212
Gingin 11 32323313
Canberra 8 22322222
Kennaook Cape Grim 9 33322212
Hobart 8 23322212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 12 23343311
Casey 29 46633222
Mawson 21 34543332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 53 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 4443 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 10 G0-G1
27 Dec 10 G0
28 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 25-Dec. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly
expected over 26-28 Dec, with a chance for isolated periods of
G1 on 26-Dec due to ongoing coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 25-Dec were
mostly normal. HF radio propagation conditions are expected to
be mostly normal over 26-28 Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 103
Dec 89
Jan 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
27 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
28 Dec 115 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 30% enhanced on UT day 25-Dec.
Sporadic-E was observed in Perth over the day. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted values to 20% enhanced over 26-28 Dec. Sporadic-E
is still expected in local night hours, but may be on a declining
trend.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 691 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 193000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list