[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 14 December 25 issued 2330 UT on 14 Dec 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 15 10:30:53 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 DECEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec: 119/71
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level for UT day 14-Dec.
There is currently no solar region of significant area on the
visible solar disk. Solar region AR4296 located behind the southwest
solar limb at solar latitude S16 produced a C3.8 flare at 14/0742UT.
Solar region AR4304 (N25W85, beta) and AR4307 (S15W31, beta-gamma)
produced low level C class flares. Solar region AR4308 (N17E33,
beta) continues to grow though remained flare quiet. The chance
of an isolated R1 flare may be slightly increasing if AR4308
and AR4307 continue to develop in coming days. Region AR4304
is rotating off disk. There are currently five regions on the
visible solar disk. Other regions are stable or in decay. R0
conditions are forecast for 15-17 Dec. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions were observed on 14-Dec. S0 solar radiation storm
conditions are expected over 15-17 Dec. The longer transequatorial
eastern arm of a north polar extension coronal hole is now at
the solar central meridian. No geoeffective coronal mass ejections
were observed over the past UT day. A southwest CME, with limited
expansion, was observed from 14/0800UT in association with the
C3.8 flare from behind the southwest solar limb. This event is
not considered to be Earth directed. The solar wind speed decreased
over the UT day as the influence from the western arm of the
coronal hole currently visible on the solar disk declines. The
solar wind speed ranged between 667-490 km/s and is currently
at 487 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was -3 to 4 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field strength is
currently very small in magnitude. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to decline over the next few days before increasing
again on 18-Dec due to the wind stream from the transequatorial
eastern arm of the coronal hole now at the solar central meridian.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12121121
Cocos Island 3 12111110
Darwin 4 11121221
Townsville 5 22121121
Learmonth 5 12121222
Alice Springs 4 11121211
Gingin 6 22121222
Canberra 3 12111111
Kennaook Cape Grim 4 12211121
Hobart 4 12211111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 11112111
Casey 25 46532232
Mawson 20 54333242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 5222 3233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Dec 8 G0
16 Dec 6 G0
17 Dec 14 G0, chance of G1 toward end of the UT day
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Dec. In the Antarctic region isolated periods
of G1-G2 conditions were observed at Mawson and Casey and G0
conditions were observed at Macquarie Island. G0 conditions are
generally expected over 15-17 Dec. The Earth is expected to enter
a coronal hole wind stream on 18-Dec, there may be an increase
in geomagnetic activity late in the UT day on 17-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
17 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 14-Dec were
generally fair to normal, with poor to fair conditions at times
at high latitudes. HF conditions are expected to be normal for
15-17 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Dec 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 103
Dec 89
Jan 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Dec were 15% depressed to near predicted
monthly values, with depressed conditions observed during the
local day. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
for 15-17 Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 264000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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