[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 02 December 25 issued 2330 UT on 02 Dec 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Wed Dec 3 10:30:49 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 DECEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 DECEMBER - 05 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Dec: 200/152
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Dec 04 Dec 05 Dec
Activity R2-R3 R2-R3 R2-R3
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 205/156 210/161 210/161
COMMENT: Solar activity was at the R0 level over the UT day 02-Dec.
Currently, there are ten numbered sunspot regions. AR4299 (N23E58,
beta) remains of interest, given it appears to be the same as
that of AR4274, from the previous solar rotation. This region
was associated with significant flaring and CME activity. However,
it has decayed significantly since its previous rotation. However,
it has seen minor growth in the previous 24 hours. A small, unnumbered
region has also recently appeared in close proximity to AR4297.
It is currently located at approximately S02W28 and has been
analysed to be a beta region. AR4294 (S14E41, beta-delta) remains
the largest. This region has shown minor growth over the last
24 hours. AR4298 (S17E22, beta) has also seen the growth of a
number of trailer spots. All other sunspot regions on the disk
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R2-R3 level over 3-5 Dec, due to potential flare activity
from both AR4294 and AR4299. Solar radiation storm conditions
were at the S0 level during UT day 02-Dec, and S0 conditions
are forecast to continue over the period 3-5 Dec. There were
no Earth-bound Coronal Mass Ejections observed over the past
UT day. The solar wind environment on UT day 02-Dec was largely
stable. The solar wind speed ranged from 477 to 378 km/s. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +4 to -4nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase from 3-Dec due to a
recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Dec : A K
Australian Region 6 22211222
Cocos Island 3 21100221
Darwin 6 22111223
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 8 22121332
Alice Springs 5 12211222
Gingin 8 31221232
Canberra 6 22211222
Kennaook Cape Grim 6 22221222
Hobart 6 13211222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Dec :
Macquarie Island 6 12122222
Casey 21 45433233
Mawson 25 34233364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 4122 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Dec 11 G0
04 Dec 25 G1
05 Dec 22 G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region throughout UT day 02-Dec, with an isolated period of G1
observed at Casey and similarly, a period of G2 at Mawson. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on the 03-Dec, increasing
to G1 over 04-05 Dec. This is due to a high speed wind stream
from an equatorial coronal hole, expected to connect with the
Earth by 4-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal Fair
05 Dec Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 02-Dec were
normal. HF conditions are expected to normal on the 03-Dec. Normal-fair
conditions are expected in high latitude regions on the 04-Dec.
Normal-fair conditions are expected on the 05-Dec. This is due
to the presence of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream,
expected to become geoeffective on the 04-Dec. Shortwave fadeouts
are probable on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 103
Dec 89
Jan 89
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Dec 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 Dec 100 Near predicted monthly values
05 Dec 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 114 was issued on
2 December and is current for 2-4 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 02-Dec were up to 15%
enhanced. Niue, Norfolk, Canberra and Hobart, experienced extended
periods of sporadic-E. MUFs are forecast to continue to be up
to 15% enhanced on the 03-Dec. MUFs are forecast to be near monthly
predicted values over 04-05 Dec, due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are probable on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.1E+08
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Dec
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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