[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:30:51 AEDT 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 180/133


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Dec             02 Dec             03 Dec
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   190/143            190/143            190/143


COMMENT: Solar activity was a the R0 level over the UT day Nov-30, 
with no M class or higher flares observed. Currently, there are 
five numbered sunspot regions, with newly rotated Active Region 
(AR) 4294 (S16E54, beta-gamma) being the largest and most active. 
This region has shown mild growth over the last 24 hours, and 
more associated active region sites have now rotated on to the 
visible solar surface. AR4288 (N16W55, beta) has also shown some 
growth over the last UT day. Two new unnumbered regions have 
appeared over UT Nov-30, with a small region appearing at (S12E01), 
with alpha polarity. A second unnumbered region has rotated onto 
the solar disk at (N24E88). This region appears to exhibit foreshortening 
affected alpha polarity. This new active region is also coincident 
with previously flare active region AR4274, and has already produced 
two high level C-class flares over the last 24 hours as it has 
rotated over the disk. All other sunspot regions on the disk 
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to 
be at the R1-R2 level on 1-3 Dec, due to potential flare activity 
from both AR4294 and the new flare active region that has recently 
rotated onto the disk. Solar radiation storm conditions were 
at the S0 level during UT day 30-Nov, and S0 conditions are forecast 
to continue over the period 1-3 Dec. There were no Earth-bound 
Coronal Mass Ejections observed over the past UT day. The solar 
wind speed has gradually decreased over the past last 24 hours, 
dropping from 650-600 km/s, to now be largely within the range 
540-580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, 
Bt) peaked at 7 nT during 30-Nov, with the North-South component 
(Bz) ranging between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed will 
continue to ease over 1-3 Dec, before the onset of high speed 
wind stream effects from an equatorial hole thereafter.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: G0

Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32221222
      Cocos Island         5   21121221
      Darwin               8   32221223
      Townsville           8   32222222
      Learmonth           10   32232322
      Alice Springs        7   32221222
      Gingin              11   32232323
      Canberra             7   22221232
      Kennaook Cape Grim  10   33322222
      Hobart               9   33321222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    12   23243322
      Casey               27   55542333
      Mawson              34   54443464

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        2   (Quiet)
      Gingin              35   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20   3343 4433     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Dec    10    G0
02 Dec     8    G0
03 Dec    12    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian 
region throughout UT day 30-Nov, with G1-G2 periods of geomagnetic 
conditions observed across the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic 
conditions are expected on 1-3 Dec, with a high speed wind stream 
from an equatorial coronal hole expected to connect with the 
Earth by 4-Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
02 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal
03 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Nov were 
normal to fair, with fair conditions observed across the South 
American region. Depressions were also observed in the Asia, 
Europe, and North America regions during local night hours. Ionospheric 
scintillation was observed in the South American region. Conditions 
are expected to be normal-fair over 1-3 Dec, with no significant 
geomagnetic events forecast. Shortwave fadeouts are likely on 
daylight HF circuits.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Nov    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      104
Nov      89
Dec      90

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec    90    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on 
28 November and is current for 29 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov 
were mostly near predicted monthly values, with some mild nighttime 
depressions and enhancements seen in the Cocos Islands and Niue 
Island respectively. Spread F was observed during local night 
hours at Hobart, and Sporadic E was observed at times at Hobart 
and Niue. MUFs are forecast to continue to be near predicted 
monthly values during 01-03 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are likely 
on daylight HF circuits.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 614 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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