[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 November 25 issued 2330 UT on 30 Nov 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Mon Dec 1 10:30:51 AEDT 2025
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 NOVEMBER 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 DECEMBER - 03 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Nov: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Nov: 180/133
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Dec 02 Dec 03 Dec
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 190/143 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity was a the R0 level over the UT day Nov-30,
with no M class or higher flares observed. Currently, there are
five numbered sunspot regions, with newly rotated Active Region
(AR) 4294 (S16E54, beta-gamma) being the largest and most active.
This region has shown mild growth over the last 24 hours, and
more associated active region sites have now rotated on to the
visible solar surface. AR4288 (N16W55, beta) has also shown some
growth over the last UT day. Two new unnumbered regions have
appeared over UT Nov-30, with a small region appearing at (S12E01),
with alpha polarity. A second unnumbered region has rotated onto
the solar disk at (N24E88). This region appears to exhibit foreshortening
affected alpha polarity. This new active region is also coincident
with previously flare active region AR4274, and has already produced
two high level C-class flares over the last 24 hours as it has
rotated over the disk. All other sunspot regions on the disk
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1-R2 level on 1-3 Dec, due to potential flare activity
from both AR4294 and the new flare active region that has recently
rotated onto the disk. Solar radiation storm conditions were
at the S0 level during UT day 30-Nov, and S0 conditions are forecast
to continue over the period 1-3 Dec. There were no Earth-bound
Coronal Mass Ejections observed over the past UT day. The solar
wind speed has gradually decreased over the past last 24 hours,
dropping from 650-600 km/s, to now be largely within the range
540-580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF,
Bt) peaked at 7 nT during 30-Nov, with the North-South component
(Bz) ranging between -5 and +5 nT. The solar wind speed will
continue to ease over 1-3 Dec, before the onset of high speed
wind stream effects from an equatorial hole thereafter.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 32221222
Cocos Island 5 21121221
Darwin 8 32221223
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 10 32232322
Alice Springs 7 32221222
Gingin 11 32232323
Canberra 7 22221232
Kennaook Cape Grim 10 33322222
Hobart 9 33321222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Nov :
Macquarie Island 12 23243322
Casey 27 55542333
Mawson 34 54443464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20 3343 4433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Dec 10 G0
02 Dec 8 G0
03 Dec 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed across the Australian
region throughout UT day 30-Nov, with G1-G2 periods of geomagnetic
conditions observed across the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 1-3 Dec, with a high speed wind stream
from an equatorial coronal hole expected to connect with the
Earth by 4-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
02 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
03 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 30-Nov were
normal to fair, with fair conditions observed across the South
American region. Depressions were also observed in the Asia,
Europe, and North America regions during local night hours. Ionospheric
scintillation was observed in the South American region. Conditions
are expected to be normal-fair over 1-3 Dec, with no significant
geomagnetic events forecast. Shortwave fadeouts are likely on
daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Nov 98
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 104
Nov 89
Dec 90
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 113 was issued on
28 November and is current for 29 Nov to 1 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Nov
were mostly near predicted monthly values, with some mild nighttime
depressions and enhancements seen in the Cocos Islands and Niue
Island respectively. Spread F was observed during local night
hours at Hobart, and Sporadic E was observed at times at Hobart
and Niue. MUFs are forecast to continue to be near predicted
monthly values during 01-03 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are likely
on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Nov
Speed: 614 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 172000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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