[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 23 April 25 issued 2331 UT on 23 Apr 2025 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Apr 24 09:31:08 AEST 2025


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 APRIL 2025
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 167/121


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Apr             25 Apr             26 Apr
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            165/119            165/119

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 23-Apr was R0. Solar region 
AR4064 (N11W16, beta-gamma) is currently the largest and most 
complex region on the visible solar disk. This medium sized region 
is growing with intermediate spot development evident. Solar 
region AR4070 (S13E31, beta) is also growing, though this region 
currently has a more simple bipole magnetic configuration. Solar 
region AR4062 (S03W40, alpha) is a stable simple monopole. Other 
regions are quite small and magnetically simple. The largest 
flare was a C3.9 at 23/1455UT from region AR4064. There are currently 
eight numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, with a small 
spot emerging on disk at N12E57. No solar filament eruptions 
have been observed. Solar activity is expected to be R0-R1 over 
24-26 Apr. No Earth directed CMEs have been observed. A southwest 
CME was observed from 23/0800UT and is considered to be far side 
due to the lack of any on disk plasma motion/flare activity. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 23-Apr. 
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 24-26 Apr. 
The solar wind speed was strong with an initial declining trend 
then a slight increase toward the end of the UT day and ranged 
from 458 km/s to 583 km/s and is currently near 534 km/s. The 
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and 
the north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +6 to -4 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly elevated over 24-25 
Apr, due to a large coronal hole in the southern solar hemisphere. 
Due to the shape of this coronal hole the solar wind speed may 
decrease and then subsequently increase again. A small CME impact 
is possible on late 24-Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12122111
      Cocos Island         2   12121000
      Darwin               6   22222112
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            5   22222011
      Alice Springs        3   11122101
      Gingin               4   11222011
      Canberra             4   12122101
      Kennaook Cape Grim   4   11122111
      Hobart               3   11122101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     7   12143110
      Casey               11   34323112
      Mawson              12   22343223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           17   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              20   (Quiet)
      Canberra            43   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             13   4332 2233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Apr    15    G0, chance G1
25 Apr    12    G0, chance G1
26 Apr    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 Geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic region on UT day 23-Apr. G0, chance G1 conditions 
are expected over 24-25 Apr due to the ongoing influence of a 
coronal hole wind stream and a possible weak glancing blow from 
a CME first seen on 22-Apr that may arrive late on 24-Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
25 Apr      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF radio propagation conditions on UT day 23-Apr were 
fair to normal with fair conditions at middle to high latitudes. 
HF radio propagation conditions are expected to be over fair 
to normal over 24-25 Apr at middle to high latitudes with an 
improving trend.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Apr   121

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20-40%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      126
Apr      115
May      113

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr   115    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian 
region on UT day 23-Apr were near predicted monthly values. Spread 
F was observed at Hobart and Canberra during local night hours. 
MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over 24-26 Apr. 
Degraded HF conditions may be experienced during local night 
hours for the southern region Australian during 24-25 Apr.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 619 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:   202000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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