[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 31 August 24 issued 2330 UT on 31 Aug 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Sun Sep 1 09:30:49 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 AUGUST 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0049UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.2 0238UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.2 0859UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.8 1302UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 232/182
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 235/185 245/195 245/195
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Aug was at the R1 level.
Solar region AR3806 (S10E34, beta-gamma) produced three M1 flares.
Another M1 flare appeared to be from the southeast solar limb
at solar latitude S18. The penumbral area of the leader spots
of AR3806 has declined and the leader spots have redistributed.
Solar region AR3807 (S15W12, beta-gamma) has increased in longitudinal
extent with growth in intermediate and trailer spots. Nearby
small solar region AR3804 (S25E03, beta-gamma) has new emerging
small leader spots. Solar region AR3811 (S10E77, alpha) is a
large single spot. A line of small spots appears to be emerging
just to the east of AR3811. A new small spot group AR3810 (N15E37,
beta) has recently emerged on disk. There are currently eleven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R1, chance R2 level over 01-03 Sep. S0 solar
radiation storm conditions have been observed and S0 conditions
are expected for 01-03 Sep. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A northwest CME was observed from 31/0106UT in LASCO
imagery which could not be correlated to on disk activity. The
solar wind speed on UT day 31-Aug was steady and slightly variable,
ranging from 335 to 410 km/s and is currently near 380 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 13
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -11
nT. The mildly enhanced solar wind state may be due to weak coronal
hole wind stream influence. The solar wind is expected to be
slightly elevated on 01-Sep then to decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 22413322
Cocos Island 7 2-------
Darwin 9 22412222
Townsville 14 22523322
Learmonth 12 22413332
Alice Springs 9 22412321
Gingin 12 22313432
Canberra 14 23513322
Kennaook Cape Grim 14 22513331
Hobart 13 22513321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Aug :
Macquarie Island 33 24724522
Casey 10 22412322
Mawson 29 33423465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 1133 4534
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 10 G0
02 Sep 8 G0
03 Sep 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 31-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
and G3 observed at Macquarie Island. Two periods of planetary
G1 conditions were observed. Geomagnetic activity has been recently
mildly elevated due to periods of southward IMF conditions. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected over 01-03 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 31-Aug were
mostly normal, with fair conditions observed at high latitudes.
HF radio communication conditions are expected to be generally
normal over 01-03 Sep, with fair conditions at high latitudes.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 131
Aug 119
Sep 119
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 125 Initially depressed 15% then near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced
02 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Sep 145 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 96 was issued on
31 August and is current for 31 Aug to 2 Sep. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 31-Aug
were generally near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced. Spread F
was observed at Hobart and Perth during local night hours. Southern
Australian region MUFs are 15% depressed after local dawn this
morning and are expected to recover during the local day today.
Northern Australian region MUFs are near predicted values after
local dawn. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 02-03 Sep. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 94100 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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