[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 July 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Jul 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
aswfc at bom.gov.au
Thu Jul 25 09:30:44 AEST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JULY 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JULY - 27 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M3.6 0742UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M3.0 1721UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jul: 175/129
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Jul 26 Jul 27 Jul
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Jul was R1, with two M3
class solar flares from AR3751 (S08W69, beta). There are currently
nine numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3751 has been
the most active, and while it nears the western limb is becoming
difficult to analyse, but does not appear to be growing. AR3762
(S13E11, gamma-delta) has grown rapidly in the past 24 hours,
and is forming a small delta spot. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be R1-R2 over 25-27 Jul.
Several CMEs were observed on UT day 24-Jul, but none are
considered geoeffective. CMEs were associated with the M3 flares
from AR3751, but due to its location near the limb these CMEs are
expected to pass far ahead of the Earth.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were observed on UT day 24-Jul.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected over 25-27 Jul,
with a slight chance for S1 on 25-Jul.
The solar wind environment on UT day 24-Jul was on a declining
trend. The solar wind speed ranged from 378 to 278 km/s and
is currently near 300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 19 nT due to the CME shock on
23-Jul, but has since returned to near background levels.
The north-south IMF component ranged between +13 to -3 nT.
The solar wind is expected to be near background levels on 25-Jul.
A CME that was first observed on 23-Jul may have a glancing blow
on 26-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 22211001
Cocos Island 3 22211000
Darwin 4 22211012
Townsville 4 22211012
Learmonth 3 22211000
Alice Springs 3 22211001
Gingin 1 21100000
Canberra 2 21100001
Kennaook Cape Grim 2 11211000
Hobart 2 12111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 22211101
Mawson 7 33211103
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jul :
Darwin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2101 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Jul 8 G0
26 Jul 14 G0-G1
27 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 33 was issued on 21 July and
is current for 24-25 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
on UT day 24-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected
over 25-27 Jul, although a glancing blow from a recent CME is
possible on 26-Jul. G1 geomagnetic conditions are possible on
this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0250UT 23/07, Ended at 2335UT 23/07
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0200UT 23/07, Ended at 1300UT 23/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal
26 Jul Normal Normal Normal
27 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF radio communication was generally normal on UT day
24-Jul. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
normal over 25-27 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Jul 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 120
Jul 118
Aug 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
26 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
27 Jul 130 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 77 was issued
on 22 July and is current for 24-25 Jul. ASWFC SWF HF Communications
Warning 78 was issued on 22 July and is current for 23-25 Jul.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24-Jul were near
predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced in the Australian region.
Spread-F and sporadic-E were observed in Canberra and Niue during
local night hours. Scintillation was observed at Niue from 0935
to 0950 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted values over
25-27 UT to 20% enhanced.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jul
Speed: 289 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 26000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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