[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 25 09:30:48 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0029UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.8 0239UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 1214UT possible lower European
M1.1 2250UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
M2.0 2259UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 199/151
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 195/147 185/138 170/124
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Apr was R1, with five M-class
solar flares. All of the M flares came from either AR3645 (S08W70,
beta) or AR3638 (S18W75, beta). Some high level C class solar
flares were also observed from AR3646 (N22W28, beta). There are
a total of twelve numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
The complex cluster of sunspots that has featured in recent forecasts
in the solar southwest quadrant is nearing the western limb and
suffering from projection effects, although analysis indicates
these regions are either stable or decaying. AR3648 (N18W40,
beta) and AR3654 (S09E24, beta) have shown growth over the past
day, but otherwise all other sunspots are either stable or in
decay. Solar activity is expected to be R1-R2 over 25-27 Apr.
A CME was observed to the solar southwest, which was associated
with a C9 level solar flare from AR3638 at 24/1410 UT but is
not expected to be geoeffective. No other CMEs of interest were
observed on 24-Apr.
S0 solar radiation storm conditions were
observed on 24-Apr. S0 solar radiation storm conditions are expected
over 25-27 Apr.
The solar wind was at background levels on 24-Apr.
The solar wind speed ranged between 350 and 400 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north-south IMF component range (Bz) was +5 to -2 nT. There are
a series of coronal holes beginning near S00W30 stretching to
S40W00. These coronal holes may increase the solar wind speed
from 25-Apr and over 26-27 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 0 10000001
Cocos Island 1 21010000
Darwin 1 10110001
Townsville 2 20011012
Learmonth 1 11100000
Alice Springs 0 10000001
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 10000001
Kennaook Cape Grim 0 10000001
Hobart 1 11000001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 4 33200000
Mawson 4 22210003
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 7 1122 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 12 G0, chance G1
26 Apr 12 G0, chance G1
27 Apr 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in Australian
and Antarctica on UT day 24-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 25-27, with a chance for G1 on these days due
to coronal holes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
26 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication on UT day 24-Apr was generally
normal. Some degraded conditions were observed in high latitudes
and equatorial scintillation was common. HF radio communication
conditions are expected to be normal to mildly degraded over
25-27 Apr due to an anticipated coronal hole high speed wind
stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 147
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 70% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 140 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 135 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region were near predicted values to 25% enhanced on UT day 24-Apr.
Spread F was observed in Hobart and Perth during local night
and dawn hours. Scintillation was observed at Darwin, Weipa and
Niue between 24/0911-1350 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values over 25-27 Apr, although some mild depressions
may be observed due to the oncoming coronal hole wind stream
over this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 383 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 33300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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