[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 22 April 24 issued 2330 UT on 22 Apr 2024 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 23 09:30:51 EST 2024
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 APRIL 2024
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0813UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 1335UT possible lower European
M2.8 1550UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.6 2116UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 227/177
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 225/175 210/161 190/143
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Apr was at the R1 level
due to several low level M-class flares, the largest of which
was an M2.8 flare at 22/1550UT from AR3656 (S12E62, beta). There
are currently 16 numbered active regions visible on the solar
disk. AR3645 (S08W42, beta-gamma) is the largest region on the
disk and has shown spot growth. AR3649 (N17W59, beta), AR3647
(S13W37, gamma), AR3646 (N22W01, beta-gamma), AR3654 (S09E51,
beta-gamma) and AR3655 (S27E53, beta) have all exhibited spot
development over the UT day. AR3648 (N18W13, beta) and AR3652
(N15E20, beta) have shown mild spot growth. All other active
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at R1-R2 levels over 23-25 Apr. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A number of small eruptions
were observed from the cluster of active regions in the southwest
quadrant near S12W40, visible in GOES SUVI imagery throughout
the UT day. No significant CMEs were observed associated with
these events, and the material is not expected to be significantly
Earth-directed. The solar wind speed on UT day 22-Apr mildly
declined, ranging from 375 to 500 km/s and is currently near
405 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 7 nT and the north south IMF component (Bz) range was
+6 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near
background levels over 23-25 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22211022
Cocos Island 3 12210011
Darwin 4 22201012
Townsville 4 22211012
Learmonth 5 22211022
Alice Springs 5 22211022
Gingin 5 22211122
Canberra 4 12212012
Kennaook Cape Grim 5 22212022
Hobart 5 12212022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Apr :
Macquarie Island 8 22333011
Casey 11 34331122
Mawson 21 34322136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18 3434 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 12 G0, chance of G1
24 Apr 12 G0, chance of G1
25 Apr 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 21 April
and is current for 21-24 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 22-Apr. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 23-25 Apr, with a chance of G1 over
23-24 Apr due to possible weak glancing CME arrivals.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 22-Apr were
normal. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected over 23-25 Apr.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 138
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 120
Apr 114
May 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Apr 135 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 40 was issued on
21 April and is current for 22-24 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 22-Apr were mostly
near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed at Canberra
during local night hours. Periods of sporadic-E were observed
at Hobart and Perth. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced over 23-25
Apr. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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