[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 November 23 issued 2330 UT on 24 Nov 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 25 10:30:09 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 NOVEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 NOVEMBER - 27 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Nov: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0934UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Nov: 178/131
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Nov 26 Nov 27 Nov
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 175/129 175/129 175/129
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 24-Nov was R1 due to an isolated
M1 flare from solar region AR3499(S18W08, beta). In SDO193 imagery
plasma motion/dimming is visible during the interval 24/0940-1020UT
to the south east of AR3499 following the minor flare. This region
has recently shown only minor growth. Solar region AR3500(S17E50,
beta-gamma-delta) is currently the largest and most magnetically
complex region on the disk and has been mostly stable in the
last 24 hours, with only minor growth evident. Other regions
of note are AR3492(N20E14, beta-gamma) which has shown decay
in its intermediate spots and AR3490(N12E01, beta-gamma-delta)
which has shown minor growth. There are currently twelve numbered
solar regions on the visible solar disk. Other regions have been
mostly stable, exhibiting only minor changes. Solar activity
is expected to be R0-R1 over 25-27 Nov. A narrow south west directed
CME was observed following the M1 flare. Subsequent modelling
shows a CME mostly directed below the ecliptic plane, with the
top edge of the CME possibly grazing the under side of the Earth's
magnetosphere mid 26-Nov. The solar wind was steady and ranged
between 340 to 380 km/sec until approximately 24/1900UT, then
the solar wind speed gradually increased to 440km/sec. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (MF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -7 nT. Mild southward
fluctuations in Bz were observed during the second half of the
UT day. The solar wind is expected to be moderately enhanced
over 25-26-Nov due to a combination of a coronal hole wind stream
and possible weak CME arrivals.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Nov: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11112223
Cocos Island 3 10111221
Darwin 5 11012213
Townsville 3 111121--
Learmonth 6 21112223
Alice Springs 6 11112223
Gingin 8 11112333
Canberra 6 11112223
Hobart 7 12212223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 12103212
Casey 15 34433222
Mawson 23 43334354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 3221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Nov 6 G0, chance G1 late in UT day.
26 Nov 25 G1, chance G2.
27 Nov 16 G0, chance G1 early in UT day.
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 71 was issued on 24 November
and is current for 26 Nov only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 24-Nov. Mostly G0
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region
with a G1 period at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are generally
expected for 25 Nov. There is a possibility of weak CME impacts
from late on 25-Nov and on 26-Nov, combined with a coronal hole
wind stream, subsequently increasing geomagnetic activity to
G1 conditions. G0 conditions are generally expected on 27-Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Nov Normal Fair Fair-poor
27 Nov Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 24-Nov were
normal. HF radio communication conditions are expected to be
mostly normal on 25 Nov. HF radio communication conditions may
become degraded for middle to high latitudes on 26-Nov due to
an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Nov 127
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 130
Nov 100
Dec 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
26 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
27 Nov 90 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to 15% enhanced. Mild spread-F was observed at
Hobart and Perth during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced on 25-Nov.
Degraded HF communications quality may be experienced during
local night hours on 26-Nov. MUFs may become depressed by 15%
in the southern Australian region on 27-Nov due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Nov
Speed: 457 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list