[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 May 23 issued 0209 UT on 27 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 27 12:09:46 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
Corrected Copy: solar region that produced M1 flare.
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 2303UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1,chance R2 R0-R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 148/102 148/102 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-May was at the R1 level,
due to an M1.3 flare at 26/2303UT from AR3315(S17E07, beta).
There was a near simultaneous flare from AR3311(N18W30, beta)
in SDO094 imagery, with the brighter optical flare from AR3315.
Solar region AR3314(N12W41, beta) produced a C5.5 flare at 26/1754UT.
Solar region AR3315 also produced several low level C flares.
Other regions currently on disk remained flare quiet. There are
currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. Solar
region AR3315 continues to show development. Solar region AR3311(N18W30,
beta) continues to decline. The other solar regions exhibited
only minor changes. Old solar region AR3296 (N15) which produced
M-flare(s) on its previous solar transit may return on 27 May
(though there is currently no sign of anything that significant
on the NE limb). Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1, with
a slight chance of an R2 flare over 27-29 May. A small erupting
solar prominence was observed near/on the western solar limb
at S10 at 26/0253UT. Some solar filament motion activity was
observed at S05E05 at 16/1503UT, N27E20 at 26/1538UT and S15W25
at 26/2041UT but with no eruptions clearly apparent. No Earth
directed CMEs have been observed. A westward CME was observed
in association with western solar limb prominence activity at
26/0312UT, and a southward faint CME was observed from 26/1948UT,
both events are considered as not Earth directed. The southward
CME could not be correlated to any on disk activity. The solar
wind speed on UT day 26-May showed a declining trend and ranged
from 573 to 396 km/s, and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT and the
north-south IMF component range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind
speed is expected to continue to decrease to background levels
as coronal hole wind stream effects wane. A small coronal hole
is at the solar meridian at solar latitude N40, though moderately
high in latitude and rather small this hole may produce a very
mild increase in solar wind speed in 3-4 days time. There is
a slight chance for a very weak CME transient signature in the
solar wind parameters on 29-May from the M1/CME on 25-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: G0
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22210211
Cocos Island 3 22210001
Darwin 3 21210111
Townsville 4 22200211
Learmonth 4 22210211
Alice Springs 3 22200201
Gingin 4 22210211
Canberra 3 22100201
Hobart 3 22200201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 3 22200200
Casey 9 33321222
Mawson 18 44331125
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3233 3222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 8 G0
28 May 6 G0
29 May 13 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-May. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 27-29 May. There is a slight chance for a very
weal glancing blow from a CME on 29-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal
29 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 26-May were generally
normal, with some mild degradations observed at middle to high
latitudes during local night hours. HF communication conditions
are expected to be mostly normal over 27-29 May. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15-45%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 95 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on
25 May and is current for 26-28 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 26-May were generally near predicted monthly
values in the Australian region, with depressions of up to 20%
observed during local night hours. Spread-F was observed in Townsville,
Brisbane, Canberra and Hobart during local night hours. Sporadic
E was occasionally observed at Darwin. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 27-29 May. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible. A minor fadeout impacting lower HF frequencies
associated with the M1 flare was observed at Niue at the time
of issue of this report.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 268000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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