[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 May 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 May 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 20 09:30:10 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May: R2
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.3 0048UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.6 0312UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.5 0500UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.3 2006UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 165/119
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 May 21 May 22 May
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 165/119 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-May reached R2 levels. A
total of 6 M-class flares were observed: M5.3 at 0048 UT, M1
at 0312 UT, M2.5 at 0500 UT, and an M2.3 at 2006 UT followed
by an M2.7 at 2026 UT and M1 at 2120 UT. All M-class flares originated
from new region AR3311 (N18E61, beta). There are currently 8
numbered sunspot regions on the disk. AR3311 is the most flare
productive and some minor growth was observed over the past 24
hours. AR3308 (N11W38, alpha) and AR3310 (S20E49, beta) have
also shown some minor growth. All other sunspot regions are either
stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2
levels over 20-22 May. A filament eruption was observed in H-alpha
imagery from 19/0449 UT from the southwest quadrant. A CME was
observed from 19/0749 UT, but is not considered geoeffective.
A larger filament, located near S25W03, has been showing signs
it may soon lift off the Sun. This filament will be monitored
closely for any possible subsequent CME activity. N The 10 MeV
proton flux has returned to background levels. The solar wind
speed on UT day 19-May was on a general inclining trend and ranged
from 285 to 365 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 16 nT, shortly after a weak
shock was observed at 2030 UT to indicate the arrival of a recent
CME. The north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -15 nT,
with southward oriented Bz following the weak shock. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 20-21 May, with
a pair of small coronal holes in the northern hemisphere contributing
to the high speed winds. The solar wind may begin to decline
by 22-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: G0
Estimated Indices 19 May : A K
Australian Region 4 11111222
Cocos Island 4 11011222
Darwin 4 11111222
Townsville 5 11111223
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 4 10111222
Gingin 3 00100222
Canberra 2 00000222
Hobart 3 01000222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
Macquarie Island 2 00000122
Casey 6 22201322
Mawson 7 01101234
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 6 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 6 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 4 1100 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 May 20 G0-G1
21 May 12 G0
22 May 8 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 28 was issued on 19 May and
is current for 20 May only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 19-May. Mostly
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 20-22 May, with possible
isolated periods of G1 on 20-May due to a recent CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Fair-poor Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
21 May Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some degradations to HF communication conditions were
observed in low latitude regions on UT day 19-May during local
night hours. Otherwise, generally normal conditions were observed.
Mostly Normal HF communication conditions are expected over 20-22
May, with some mild degradations possible during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 May 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 120
May 87
Jun 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 May 90 Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed
21 May 85 Near predicted monthly values to 10% depressed
22 May 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on
19 May and is current for 20-22 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-May were near predicted monthly values in
the Australian region. Spread-F was observed at Hobart; sporadic-E
was observed at Townsville, and degraded conditions were observed
at Darwin during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near
predicted monthly values over 20-22 May, with some mild depressions
possible. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 438 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 152000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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