[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 31 09:30:48 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0814UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul: 174/128
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jul 01 Aug 02 Aug
Activity R0-R2 R0-R2 R0-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jul was R1, with an M1.8
flare at 0814 UT from AR3390 (S18E50, beta). There are currently
10 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3380 (S11W24,
beta-gamma) and AR3386 (N11E08, beta-gamma) are the most complex
regions and both have shown growth over the past 24 hours, but
neither region has produced any significant activity so far.
AR3384 (S16W08, beta) and AR3389 (S08E42, beta) have also shown
minor growth in the past 24 hours. The region that prodced the
M1.8 flare, AR3390, has since shown decay. Solar activity is
expected to be R0-R2 over 31-Jul to 02-Aug. A prominence eruption
was observed on the southwest limb from 30/1452 UT and a subsequent
CME was observed from 30/1723 UT. This CME is not expected to
be geoeffective and no other significant CMEs were observed today.
The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Jul increased, ranging between
427 to 525 km/s and is currently near 480 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain near or below this level on 31-Jul, then
increase on 01-Aug due to a CME first observed on 28-Aug. The
solar wind speed is expected to begin to decline by 02-Aug. The
10 MeV proton flux declined over 30-Jul and dropped from S1 solar
radiation storm conditions to S0 by 30/1630 UT. The 10 MeV proton
flux i still currently enhanced, but on a downwards trajectory.
No further enhancements are expected, and conditions are likely
to remain at S0.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12222111
Cocos Island 4 12122110
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 12122112
Learmonth 5 22222111
Alice Springs 5 12222111
Gingin 5 12222220
Canberra 4 02122111
Hobart 5 12232110
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
Macquarie Island 8 03243200
Casey 8 14322111
Mawson 24 26522324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2201 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jul 5 G0
01 Aug 30 G0-G1, chance G2
02 Aug 12 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 42 was issued on 30 July and
is current for 1-2 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 30-Jul. Mostly G0 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctica region, with isolated
G1-G2 conditions in Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
on 31-Jul, then G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions are expected on
01-Aug due to an impact from a CME first observed on 28-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0035UT 29/07, Ended at 1615UT 30/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions on UT day 30-Jul were mostly
normal, but were degraded during local night hours in mid and
high latitudes due to sporadic-E. Some degradations in high latitude
still persisted from a recent polar cap absorption (PCA) event,
but conditions are likely to return to normal on 31-Jul. Mildly
degraded conditions are then expected over 01-02 Aug due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity from a CME first observed on 28-Jul. Isolated
shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jul 122
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jul 105 Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced
01 Aug 80 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
02 Aug 90 Near predicted monthly values to 10-15% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 71 was issued on
29 July and is current for 29-31 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Jul were near predicted values to 15% enhanced
in the Australian region. Sporadic-E was observed in Brisbane,
Canberra and Hobart during local night hours, particularly around
1600-1900 UT. Strong range and frequency spread was observed
in Niue during local night hours. Scintillation was observed
at Niue between 0733-0750 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
values to 15% enhanced on 31-Jul, then tending towards mild depressions
of 10-15% over 01-02 Aug due to anticipated geomagnetic activity
from a CME first observed on 28-Jul. Isolated shortwave fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.5E+06
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 388 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 64600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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