[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 19 July 23 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jul 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 20 09:30:47 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JULY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JULY - 22 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1057UT possible lower European
M3.8 1725UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jul: 189/142
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jul 21 Jul 22 Jul
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 188/141 188/141 188/141
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19-Jul was at the R1 level,
due to an M3.8 flare at 19/1725UT from an active region beyond
the western limb. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3372 (N21W26, beta-gamma)
is the largest region on the solar disk and has shown slight
growth in its trailer spots. AR3373 (N08E06, beta-gamma) has
shown decay in its intermediate spots. AR3376 (N24E18, beta-gamma)
has shown decay in its trailer spots. AR3377 (S09E44, beta) has
exhibited spot development in its trailer spots over the UT day.
Newly numbered AR3379 (N14E70, beta) recently rotated over the
eastern limb and appears stable. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level over 20-22 Jul, with a chance of R2. S1 solar proton
conditions persisted throughout UT day 19-Jul. S1 conditions
are expected on 20-Jul, declining to S0 over the UT day. A west-directed
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from
19/1736UT. This CME is associated with the aforementioned M3.8
flare which originated from beyond the western limb. This CME
is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs
have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 19-Jul declined,
ranging from 380 to 485 km/s, and is currently near 400 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 20-22 Jul
due to the anticipated arrival of two CMEs first observed on
17 and 18-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11102000
Cocos Island 1 11111000
Darwin 3 21211001
Townsville 3 11112011
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 1 11101001
Gingin 2 11102010
Canberra 1 10102000
Hobart 1 10102000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00002000
Casey 10 24322221
Mawson 10 12412124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 12 4222 2233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jul 60 G2-G3
21 Jul 50 G2, chance G3
22 Jul 14 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 19 July and
is current for 20-21 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 19-Jul. G2-G3
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 20-Jul due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 17-Jul. G2 conditions are
expected on 21-Jul, with a chance of G3 due to an anticipated
impact from a CME first observed on 18-Jul, combined with possible
ongoing effects from the previous CME impact on 20-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 22-Jul, with a chance of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jul Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0145UT 18/07, Ended at 1425UT 18/07
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jul Poor Poor Poor(PCA)
21 Jul Poor Poor Poor
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF communication conditions on UT day 18-Jul were mostly
normal at low to mid latitudes, with poor conditions observed
at high latitudes due to polar cap absorption events caused by
S1 solar proton conditions. HF communication conditions are expected
to be degraded over 20-21 Jul due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity caused by impacts from CMEs first observed on 17-Jul
and 18-Jul. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 22-Jul.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jul 105
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 98
Jul 91
Aug 88
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jul 95 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 67 was issued on
19 July and is current for 19-21 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19-Jul in the Australian region were generally
near predicted monthly values. Spread F was observed during local
night hours in the southern Australian region. MUFs are expected
to be generally near predicted monthly values over 20-22 Jul.
MUF depressions after local dawn are possible over 20-21 Jul
in southern Australian regions due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity caused by impacts from CMEs first observed on 17-Jul
and 18-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+08
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jul
Speed: 505 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 153000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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