[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 February 23 issued 2330 UT on 26 Feb 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 27 10:30:54 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 FEBRUARY 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 FEBRUARY - 01 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Feb: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Feb: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Feb 28 Feb 01 Mar
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 155/109 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Feb was at R0 levels. There
are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3229
(N26W58, beta), which has been producing long duration flares
and fast CMEs, has been decaying. AR3234 (N30W05, beta-delta)
and AR3236 (S26W16, beta-gamma) have shown unstable growth, but
have not yet produced any significant flares. All other sunspot
regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1
levels over 27-Feb to 1-Mar. No new geoeffective CMEs have been
observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 26-Feb was variable
and ranged between 424 to 671 km/s, and is currently near 670
km/s. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1843UT
on 26 Feb, indicating the CME first observed on 24/2036UT is
arriving and increased geomagnetic activity is expected. The
peak interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) reached 21 nT and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -18 nT. Bz
was southward since 26/1900UT, soon after the solar wind shock,
until 26/2150UT. An equatorial coronal hole is currently in a
geoeffective location and is expecting to further increase the
solar wind speed over 27-28 Feb. The solar wind speed may decrease
by 1-Mar. Two solar flares from AR3229 on 24/2030UT and 25/1940UT
enhanced the solar energetic proton flux and caused S1 conditions
since 25/2110UT. Further S1 conditions are not likely, unless
further solar flaring from AR3229 is observed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Feb: G2
Estimated Indices 26 Feb : A K
Australian Region 21 33333155
Cocos Island 17 32323145
Darwin 16 33333144
Townsville 16 33333144
Learmonth 23 43333255
Alice Springs 21 33333155
Gingin 30 42333266
Canberra 15 33332144
Hobart 18 33332145
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Feb :
Macquarie Island 16 33343134
Casey 31 45443355
Mawson 40 34543257
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 15 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 80 (Active)
Canberra 91 (Minor storm)
Hobart 103 (Major storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10 1122 1433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Feb 36 G1-G2, chance of isolated periods of G3
28 Feb 20 G1-G2
01 Mar 14 G0, chance of isolated periods of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 26 February
and is current for 26-28 Feb. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 26-Feb, with
two periods of G2 at Gingin. Mostly G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in Antarctica, with an isolated period of G3 at
Mawson. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions, with a chance of an isolated
period of G3, are expected over 27-28 Feb due to anticipated
geomagnetic activity. In the BOM magnetometer data for 26 Feb,
a weak (21nT) impulse was observed at 1923UT, indicating the
arrival of a CME first observed on 24/2036UT. An equatorial coronal
hole is currently in a geoeffective location and is expected
to further increase geomagnetic activity over 27-28 Feb. A second
CME that was first observed 25/1938UT is expected to impact Earth
around 27/2100UT ± 7 hours and produce G1, chance of G2 conditions
on 28-Feb. Mostly G0 conditions are expected on 1-Mar, with possible
isolated periods of G1.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal-fair Poor(PCA)
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2100UT 25-Feb, and has been
fluctuating between
10 pfu (the S1 threshold) since 1910 26-Feb.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
28 Feb Normal-fair Fair Fair-poor
01 Mar Normal-fair Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may be expected on 27-Feb, due
to PCA from an S1 event that began at 25/2110UT, particularly
in high latitude regions. Further degraded HF conditions are
expected over 27-Feb to 1-Mar due to geomagnetic activity. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Feb 135
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 95% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 119
Feb 75
Mar 76
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
28 Feb 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
01 Mar 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 22 was issued on
24 February and is current for 25-27 Feb. ASWFC HF Communications
Warning 23 was issued on 26 February and is current for 27-28
Feb. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region
on UT day 26-Feb were mostly 20-30% enhanced, and enhancements
of up to 40% were observed in the northern Australian region
during local night. Sporadic-E was briefly observed in most sites
during local dawn. MUFs are expected to return to monthly expected
values, with possible depressions up to 20%, due to geomagnetic
activity over 27-Feb to 1-Mar. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Feb
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 81800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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