[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 20 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 20 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 21 10:30:55 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 DECEMBER - 23 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Dec: 195/147
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Dec 22 Dec 23 Dec
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 190/143 188/141 186/139
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several high level C-class flares. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3529 (S20E31,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on the solar
disk and has exhibited spot development, particularly in its
trailer spots. AR3519 (S10W54, beta), AR3524 (N25E14, beta) have
both shown spot growth over the UT day. AR3528 (N09W10, beta)
and AR3521 (N12E08, beta) have exhibited spot development in
their intermediate spots over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 21-23 Dec. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 20-Dec decreased, ranging from 420 to 600 km/s and is
currently near 430 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 21-23 Dec due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 32222211
Cocos Island 5 32111201
Darwin 5 22221211
Townsville 7 32222212
Learmonth 8 32222302
Alice Springs 5 32211201
Gingin 8 33222212
Canberra 7 32222211
Hobart 8 32222311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Dec :
Macquarie Island 20 44354311
Casey 35 66632222
Mawson 30 56333532
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 8 3411 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Dec 10 G0
22 Dec 8 G0
23 Dec 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Dec. G0-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 21-23 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 20-Dec were
mostly normal. Mostly normal conditions are expected over 21-23
Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Dec 134
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
22 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Dec 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 20-Dec in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Sporadic E was observed at Townsville, Canberra and
Hobart. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly
values to 15% enhanced over 21-23 Dec. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Dec
Speed: 581 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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