[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 16 December 23 issued 2330 UT on 16 Dec 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 17 10:30:56 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 DECEMBER 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 DECEMBER - 19 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Dec: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 140/94 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares observed. There are currently eleven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3514 (N05W79,
beta-gamma) produced the majority of the flares observed and
will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3519 (S10W03, beta-gamma)
has exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly
in its intermediate and trailer spots. Newly numbered AR3525
(S09E50, beta-gamma) has shown spot development since appearing
on the disk. AR3524 (N26E70, alpha) has exhibited spot growth.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Dec. S1
solar proton conditions were briefly observed at the beginning
of UT day 16-Dec. S0 conditions are expected over 17-19 Dec.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 16-Dec decreased, ranging from
415 to 520 km/s and is currently near 430 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north
south IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. A period of sustained
southward IMF conditions begun at 16/1855UT and is ongoing. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase over 17-19 Dec due to
the combined effects of component CME arrivals and coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a moderate sized coronal
hole now moving into the western hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Dec : A K
Australian Region 10 33323022
Cocos Island 8 23223022
Darwin 9 33223022
Townsville 10 33323122
Learmonth 11 33323123
Alice Springs 10 33323022
Gingin 12 33323033
Canberra 9 23323022
Hobart 9 23323022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 24333021
Casey 26 46533123
Mawson 30 45523155
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Dec :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 8 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 59 (Unsettled)
Canberra 63 (Active)
Hobart 82 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 1102 3433
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Dec 35 G1, chance G2
18 Dec 12 G0
19 Dec 12 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 79 was issued on 15 December
and is current for 17 Dec only. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 16-Dec. Mostly G0-G1
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with an isolated period of G2 observed at Casey. G1 geomagnetic
conditions, with a chance of G2 are expected on 17-Dec due to
component arrival of CMEs observed on 14-Dec. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 18-19 Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 2335UT 15/12, Ended at 0045UT 16/12
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF radio communication conditions on UT day 16-Dec were
mostly normal. Fair to poor conditions expected over 17-18 Dec
due to the anticipated arrivals of CMEs observed on 14-Dec. Mostly
normal conditions are expected on 19-Dec. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Dec 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 114
Dec 100
Jan 98
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
30%
18 Dec 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 0 to
15%
19 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC Preliminary HF Communications Warning 130 was
issued on 15 December and is current for 17-18 Dec. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values in the
Australian region on UT day 16-Dec. MUFs are generally expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Dec, however a
degradation in ionospheric conditions is expected for the southern
Australian region over 17-18 Dec due to anticipated component
arrivals of CME activity observed on 14-Dec. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Dec
Speed: 441 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 85400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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