[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 April 23 issued 2330 UT on 27 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 28 09:30:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 1114UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2 R1, chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Apr was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.8 flare from AR3288 (S23W02, beta-gamma-delta) at
27/1114UT. There are currently five numbered sunspot regions
visible on the solar disk. AR3288 is the most magnetically complex
region and has exhibited spot development over the UT day, particularly
in its intermediate spots. AR3289 (N20E42, beta-delta) has increased
in magnetic complexity. AR3291 (N10W00, beta) has shown spot
growth over the 24-hour period. All other sunspot regions have
shown only minor growth. Solar activity is expected to be at
the R1 level over 28-30 Apr, with a chance of R2. A filament
eruption was observed, visible in H-alpha imagery at 27/0204UT
from ~N05E50. A subsequent northeast directed CME was observed
in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery at 27/0236UT. Modelling indicates
only a very slight chance of a glancing impact to Earth. Any
impact to Earth from this CME is not expected to be significant.
No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 27-Apr decreased, ranging from 525 to 680 km/s,
and is currently near 580 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
elevated over 28-30 Apr due to ongoing coronal hole high speed
wind stream effects due to an equatorial coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 33333332
Cocos Island 9 22232322
Darwin 11 33232322
Townsville 15 33333432
Learmonth 14 33333332
Alice Springs 12 23332332
Gingin 15 33343332
Canberra 13 23333422
Hobart 18 33443432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 36 24655533
Casey 24 43433622
Mawson 69 56543585
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 11 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 54 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3322 3343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 18 G0-G1
29 Apr 10 G0
30 Apr 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 21 was issued on 27 April
and is current for 27-28 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Australian region on UT day 27-Apr. G1-G2 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 28-Apr due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects. G0 geomagnetic conditions are
expected over 29-30 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagations conditions were observed
on 27-Apr. Mildly degraded HF propagation conditions are possible
on 28-Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Mostly normal
HF propagation conditions are expected over 29-30 Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 112
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 115 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27-Apr in
the Australian region were near predicted monthly values to 15%
enhanced. Strong spread F was observed at Hobart during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 28-30 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 527 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 311000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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