[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 10 April 23 issued 2342 UT on 10 Apr 2023 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 11 09:42:57 EST 2023
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 APRIL 2023
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 11 APRIL - 13 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Apr: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 0520UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Apr: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Apr 12 Apr 13 Apr
Activity R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2 R1,chance R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Apr was at the R1 level,
due to an M2.8 flare from a region AR3276(S22E80, alpha) just
behind/on the south east solar limb, currently rotating onto
the solar disk. At this stage the region does not appear to be
very large but more spots may rotate on to the disk. The spots
in the largest region currently on disk, region AR3272(S21E19,
beta), showed a mix of both growth and decay, with perhaps exhibiting
overall decay late in the UT day 10-Apr. The other region of
note, AR3273(N10E16, beta) has shown growth in its trailer spots.
Neither of these regions produced significant flare activity
in the past 24 hours, with AR3272 producing numerous C flares
and AR3273 flare quiet. There are currently five numbered solar
regions on the disk. Other regions are unremarkable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R1 level over 11-13 Apr, with a chance
of R2. A solar filament located at N15E15 erupted at 10/06-07UT.
It is possible a slow westward CME followed this event, visible
in Stereo-A from 10/0823UT, which is uncertain as no LASCO coronagraph
data was available 10/01-16UT. At present it is considered that
no significant Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 10-Apr increased, ranging from 315 to 562
km/s, and is currently near 460 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -8 nT. The increase in wind speed is due
to a small equatorial coronal hole. The solar wind IMF Bz component
turned mildly northward after wind stream entry.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 22332210
Cocos Island 7 22321310
Darwin 7 22332201
Townsville - --------
Learmonth 6 22322210
Alice Springs 7 22332201
Gingin 8 22322311
Canberra 7 22332200
Hobart 8 22332310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Apr :
Macquarie Island 14 12434313
Casey 9 33322211
Mawson 29 55642320
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2011 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Apr 18 G0, chance of G1
12 Apr 16 G0, slight chance of G1
13 Apr 11 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 8 April and
is current for 11-12 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 10-Apr. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with G1-G2 periods observed
at Mawson. G0 with the chance of G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on 11-12 Apr due to the combined effects of a CME component
impact from a recent CME and coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a small equatorial coronal hole. However, the solar
wind IMF Bz component has sustained a mildly northward orientation
after coronal hole wind stream entry, reducing induced geomagnetic
activity. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected on 13 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Apr Normal Normal Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Apr Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
12 Apr Normal Fair-normal Poor-fair
13 Apr Normal Normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 10-Apr, with degraded conditions observed at times at high
latitudes. Mild degradations at middle to high latitudes are
possible on 11-12 Apr due to an expected mild increase in geomagnetic
activity, particularly during local nigh hours. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Apr 132
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20-35%.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-35%.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20-25%.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 132
Apr 84
May 84
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Apr 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Apr 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Apr 130 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on
10 April and is current for 10-12 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Apr in the Australian region were enhanced
by 15-40%. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% enhanced over 11-13 Apr. Mild degradations are possible
during local night hours on 11-Apr, due to expected mild increase
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Apr
Speed: 423 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 41000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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