[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 30 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 May 31 May 01 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29 May was at the R0 level.
AR3025 (N28W50) has increased in spot count while the other two
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level on 30 May to 01 Jun. There was a filament eruption
from near S34W70 around 29/0736 UT that produced a faint and
narrow CME which is not expected to be geoeffective. There have
been no Earth directed CMEs observed. The solar wind speed range
on 29 May was 450 to 559 km/s as the coronal hole effects persisted.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was
8 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +5/-7 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to begin to decrease on 30 May
with near ambient conditions 31 May to 01 Jun. There is the possibility
of a weak CME impact from late 31 May due to a CME first observed
on 28 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: G0
Estimated Indices 29 May : A K
Australian Region 12 23333223
Darwin 9 22323222
Learmonth 13 2333----
Alice Springs 10 22333222
Gingin 14 23333333
Canberra 11 13333223
Hobart 14 13433323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
Macquarie Island 23 23455422
Casey 12 33222333
Mawson 46 54433666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 28 5653 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 May 10 G0
31 May 8 G0
01 Jun 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29 May. G0 to G2 levels were observed in the
Antarctic region. The geomagnetic field continues to be mildly
disturbed due to coronal hole wind stream effects. G0 conditions
are expected on 30 May to 01 Jun. There is a slight chance of
a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from late 31 May due
to a possible weak glancing blow from a recent CME associated
with a partial solar filament eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 30 May to 01 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 May 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jun 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29 May were
near monthly predicted to about 15% enhanced although there were
stronger enhancements at lower latitudes. Night time spread F
was observed at Hobart and sporadic E was observed at Cocos Is.
20-23 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted
values to mildly enhanced during 30 May to 01 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 508 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 293000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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