[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 29 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 30 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29 May was at the R0 level. 
AR3025 (N28W50) has increased in spot count while the other two 
sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be 
at the R0 level on 30 May to 01 Jun. There was a filament eruption 
from near S34W70 around 29/0736 UT that produced a faint and 
narrow CME which is not expected to be geoeffective. There have 
been no Earth directed CMEs observed. The solar wind speed range 
on 29 May was 450 to 559 km/s as the coronal hole effects persisted. 
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) was 
8 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +5/-7 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to begin to decrease on 30 May 
with near ambient conditions 31 May to 01 Jun. There is the possibility 
of a weak CME impact from late 31 May due to a CME first observed 
on 28 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: G0

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   23333223
      Darwin               9   22323222
      Learmonth           13   2333----
      Alice Springs       10   22333222
      Gingin              14   23333333
      Canberra            11   13333223
      Hobart              14   13433323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island    23   23455422
      Casey               12   33222333
      Mawson              46   54433666

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             28   5653 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May    10    G0
31 May     8    G0
01 Jun    10    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 29 May. G0 to G2 levels were observed in the 
Antarctic region. The geomagnetic field continues to be mildly 
disturbed due to coronal hole wind stream effects. G0 conditions 
are expected on 30 May to 01 Jun. There is a slight chance of 
a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from late 31 May due 
to a possible weak glancing blow from a recent CME associated 
with a partial solar filament eruption.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 30 May to 01 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      77
May      51
Jun      54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 May    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jun    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 29 May were 
near monthly predicted to about 15% enhanced although there were 
stronger enhancements at lower latitudes. Night time spread F 
was observed at Hobart and sporadic E was observed at Cocos Is. 
20-23 UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly predicted 
values to mildly enhanced during 30 May to 01 Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 508 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:   293000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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