[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 27 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-May was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares, the strongest of which was a C7.2 originating
from AR3017 (N14W67, beta) at 26/0449UT, which has since decreased
in area and spot count. AR3014 (N22W93, beta-delta) is the most
complex region, and has just rotated over the western limb. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 27-29 May. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed at 26/0021UT (S25W10), although
no impact is expected at Earth. The solar wind speed on 26-May
exhibited a declining trend, from around 380 km/s at the start
of the UT day, to around 300 km/s currently. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed
is expected to be at near background levels over 27-29 May, although
it is possible that a slight increase may be observed due to
the combined impact of coronal hole effects and a possible weak
glancing blow from a CME first observed on 25-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: G0
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110100
Darwin 3 11111111
Learmonth 2 11111100
Alice Springs 1 11100100
Gingin 1 11100000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 01010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 4 13110111
Mawson 7 32223101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2222 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 15 G0
28 May 11 G0
29 May 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 26-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 27-29 May. There
is a chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions from late
27-May due to a possible glancing blow from CMEs first observed
on 25-May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 27-29 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 80 Near to 20% above predicted monthly values
28 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-May were
near monthly predicted values to moderately enhanced. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during 0900-2100UT. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced
during 27-29 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this
period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 4.7 p/cc Temp: 67000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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