[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 May 22 issued 2343 UT on 22 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 23 09:43:30 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT - CORRECTION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 165/119


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     R1                 R1                 R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            163/117            162/116

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-May was at R0 level, with 
several low-level C-class flares. Regions AR3014 (N22W38, beta-gamma-delta) 
and AR3017 (N14W12, beta) are responsible for majority of the 
flaring activity. AR3014 is the most complex region, with the 
potential to produce M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class 
flares, although it has decreased in area. AR3004 (S16) which 
previously produced a X1.1 flare and several M-class flares on 
the last solar rotation, is due to return around 23-May. Solar 
activity is expected to be at R1 level on 23-25 May, with a slight 
chance of R2-R3 levels. Several CMEs were observed, but none 
are considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 22-May 
was mildly elevated, ranging from 451-539 km/s, and is currently 
near 500 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +5 to -5 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 22/0000UT 
and 22/0640UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease to 
near background levels over 23-25 May, although there is a chance 
that it may remain slightly elevated due to the anticipated mild 
CME impact from mid 23-May to early 24-May, from a CME first 
observed on 20-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: G0

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33323110
      Darwin               6   22322110
      Learmonth            9   33323111
      Alice Springs        7   32223110
      Gingin               9   33224110
      Canberra             7   23323100
      Hobart               8   22324110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island    24   12437100
      Casey               11   33324111
      Mawson              35   66442225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   3321 3312     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    12    G0
24 May    12    G0
25 May     9    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 22-May. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region, with isolated periods of G2 observed at Mawson, and an 
isolated period of G3 observed at Macquarie Island. G0 conditions 
are likely for the Australian region during 23-25 May. There 
is a chance of increased geomagnetic conditions from mid 23-May 
due to a possible mild CME impact.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 23-25 May. Shortwave fadeouts are possible during this period.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May    93

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      77
May      51
Jun      54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    90    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
24 May    85    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
25 May    85    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 46 was issued on 22 
May and is current for 23-25 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 22-May were mostly enhanced with larger enhancements 
during the day and early evening. Spread-F was observed at Hobart 
during 1300-2100UT. MUFs are expected to be generally enhanced 
to about 25% above predicted monthly values over 23-25 May. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible during this period.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 517 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:   171000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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