[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 28 10:31:16 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 129/82 129/82 129/82
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 Mar with a few C-class
flares. There are seven numbered regions on the solar disc, with
2972 due to depart on 28 Mar and new region 2978 rotating onto
the disc. No new Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar activity
is likely to be low during 28-30 Mar. The solar wind speed increased
due to coronal hole effects to peak around 550 km/s, currently
around 485 km/s. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength
(Bt) peaked at 15 nT, currently around 7 nT. The north-south
IMF component (Bz) varied between 13 nT and -11 nT. This coronal
hole disturbance is likely to continue during 28 Mar with a mild
CME impact also likely on 28 Mar. Solar wind is likely to become
less disturbed during 29-30 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A K
Australian Region 15 22243433
Darwin 12 23232432
Townsville 16 23243433
Learmonth 18 32243533
Alice Springs 12 22232433
Gingin 17 32243443
Canberra 14 12243433
Hobart 16 23243433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
Macquarie Island 21 12254542
Casey 33 35442653
Mawson 25 33332446
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 4 (Quiet)
Gingin 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2112 0333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Mar 12 Unsettled to Active
29 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active in the Australian
region on UT day 27 Mar, with quiet to storm levels in the Antarctic
region, due to coronal hole effects. These effects are likely
to continue into 28 Mar, with the possibility of further disturbance
from a CME arrival. Unsettled to active periods are likely during
28 Mar, easing 29-30 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions are expected
for 28-30 Mar, with mild degradations possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Mar 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Mar 65 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
29 Mar 65 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
30 Mar 65 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27 Mar were
near monthly predicted values or strongly enhanced. Near monthly
predicted values with enhancements are expected for 28-30 Mar
with possible depressions at some locations.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 411 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 71700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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