[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 19 10:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 Mar. There
are six numbered regions, two with spots, on the solar disc.
The largest region currently on the solar disc AR2695 (N21W54)
appears to be declining in area and magnetic complexity. A south-west
CME first observed in LASCO C2 imagery on 17 Mar at around 21UT
does not appear to be associated with any Earth side solar activity.
A later CME at around 03UT on 18 Mar appears to be related to
small solar filaments lifting off the disk in the south-west
(S35W25) quadrant. Modelling of this event indicates an Earth
miss. Solar activity is expected to be low for 19-21 Mar. The
solar wind speed varied between 284/322 km/sec. No CME signatures
were observed in the solar wind. Interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 5nT. The north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied between +3 nT and -3 nT. A small isolated
coronal hole is visible just to the east of solar central meridian
(GOES SUVI). Whilst solar 27 day recurrent patterns suggest a
mild increase in solar wind speed around 19-20 Mar, the associated
coronal hole appears to have reduced in area on this rotation.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11000001
Townsville 0 10000001
Learmonth 0 11000000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 1 21000010
Canberra 0 000-----
Hobart 0 10000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 33211011
Mawson 11 52001033
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2222 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 12 Unsettled
21 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 19 Mar, with one isolated minor storm period
in the Antarctic. Australian conditions to be at mostly quiet
to unsettled levels, there is a weak 27 day recurrent geomagnetic
pattern for 20 Mar which may increase activity to unsettled levels,
with possible isolated active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions expected.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 18
March and is current for 18-20 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 18 Mar were near predicted monthly values to
enhanced. Near monthly predicted MUFs are expected for 19-21
Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 3.9 p/cc Temp: 56700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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