[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 February 22 issued 2333 UT on 28 Feb 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 1 10:33:18 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 Feb with a C3.1
flare at 0917 UT. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low for the next three UT days, 01-03 Mar. Spot regions 2954
and 2955 are stable with three newly numbered regions, 2956 (N27E06),
2957 (S14E45) and 2958 (N17E54). A further spot group has developed
near S13E52. A small filament disappeared from the vicinity of
S20W21 around 28/1158 UT but does not appear to have resulted
in any CME. There was an impressive eastward directed CME first
observed at 0848 UT that originated from near S27E63 on the visible
disc, but this is not expected to impact Earth. The solar wind
speed range on 28 Feb was 445-538 km/s as coronal hole wind stream
effects continued. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
strength peaked at 10 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz)
range was +9/-7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain
mildly elevated on 01 Mar and near background levels on 02-03
Mar. Solar wind conditions are likely to become elevated late
on 03 Mar or early 04 Mar as Earth enters another coronal hole
wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 23122212
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 7 2312221-
Learmonth 7 23122222
Alice Springs 7 23122212
Gingin 6 22122222
Canberra 3 12122100
Hobart 7 23222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 23123210
Casey 24 56432222
Mawson 14 34333232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 5 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 1134 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled. Slight chance of an active
period.
02 Mar 7 Quiet
03 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance of active levels later.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 28 Feb. Quiet to major levels were
observed in Antarctica. The disturbed conditions in the high
latitudes were due to coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance
of an active period on 01 Mar. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 02-03 Mar with a chance of active conditions
late on 03 Mar due to another coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition are expected over the next
three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Feb 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Mar 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near the predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on
28 Feb. Some daytime sporadic E was observed at Brisbane. Similar
MUF conditions are expected on 01-03 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Feb
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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