[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jun 30 Jun 01 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28 Jun was at the R0 level.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disc. AR3040 (S14W27, beta), shows some consolidation in the
trailer spots and AR3042 (N08W22, beta) has grown slightly. AR3041
(N17W77, beta) will soon rotate off the visible disc and the
other regions are small and decaying. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level, 29 Jun-01 Jul. The filament eruptions
around 27/0400 and 27/1000 from the northeast quadrant are not
expected to be geoeffective. Activity near S37W04 at approx.
28/1800 UT may have triggered a narrow ejection towards Earth,
otherwise, there were no Earth directed CMEs observed on 28 Jun.
The solar wind speed range on UT day 28 Jun was 383-554 km/s
and is currently near 520 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south component
(Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to decline
over the 29 Jun-01 Jul. A possible graze from a northwest CME
launched on 26 Jun may mildly elevate conditions on 29 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12210022
Darwin 3 12210011
Learmonth 5 12220023
Alice Springs 4 12210022
Gingin 5 12210023
Canberra 4 12210022
Hobart 4 12210022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 11220001
Casey 9 33331022
Mawson 30 24432137
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 12 4431 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jun 12 G0
30 Jun 8 G0
01 Jul 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctic
regions on UT day 28 Jun with one period of G1 level at Mawson.
G0 activity is expected over 29 Jun-01 Jul. There may be a minor
elevation in conditions on 29 Jun from a weak CME impact.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 29 Jun-01 Jul. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are likely
at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jun 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
30 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
01 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28 Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values with mild to moderate depressions;
some strong daytime enhancements were observed at Niue and Cocos
Is. Spread F was observed during local night at mid-latitude
sites and Darwin. MUFs on 29 Jun-01 Jul are expected to be near
monthly predicted values with mild to moderate depressions at
times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 561 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 157000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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