[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 29 09:30:49 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28 Jun was at the R0 level. 
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disc. AR3040 (S14W27, beta), shows some consolidation in the 
trailer spots and AR3042 (N08W22, beta) has grown slightly. AR3041 
(N17W77, beta) will soon rotate off the visible disc and the 
other regions are small and decaying. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level, 29 Jun-01 Jul. The filament eruptions 
around 27/0400 and 27/1000 from the northeast quadrant are not 
expected to be geoeffective. Activity near S37W04 at approx. 
28/1800 UT may have triggered a narrow ejection towards Earth, 
otherwise, there were no Earth directed CMEs observed on 28 Jun. 
The solar wind speed range on UT day 28 Jun was 383-554 km/s 
and is currently near 520 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (Bt) peaked at 7 nT and the north-south component 
(Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to decline 
over the 29 Jun-01 Jul. A possible graze from a northwest CME 
launched on 26 Jun may mildly elevate conditions on 29 Jun.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 28 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12210022
      Darwin               3   12210011
      Learmonth            5   12220023
      Alice Springs        4   12210022
      Gingin               5   12210023
      Canberra             4   12210022
      Hobart               4   12210022    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   11220001
      Casey                9   33331022
      Mawson              30   24432137

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             12   4431 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun    12    G0
30 Jun     8    G0
01 Jul     7    G0

COMMENT: G0 conditions were observed in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions on UT day 28 Jun with one period of G1 level at Mawson. 
G0 activity is expected over 29 Jun-01 Jul. There may be a minor 
elevation in conditions on 29 Jun from a weak CME impact.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 29 Jun-01 Jul. Minor to moderate MUF depressions are likely 
at times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
30 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%
01 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                25%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28 Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values with mild to moderate depressions; 
some strong daytime enhancements were observed at Niue and Cocos 
Is. Spread F was observed during local night at mid-latitude 
sites and Darwin. MUFs on 29 Jun-01 Jul are expected to be near 
monthly predicted values with mild to moderate depressions at 
times.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 561 km/sec  Density:    1.3 p/cc  Temp:   157000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list