[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 9 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 09 JUNE - 11 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jun: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jun 10 Jun 11 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jun was at R0 level, with
no significant flaring activity. There is currently only one
sunspot group on the visible solar disk: AR3029 (S21E14, alpha),
which has shown some recent spot development. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0 level over 09-11 Jun, with a slight chance
of R1 level due to the anticipated return of previous region
AR3014 (N22) during this period. AR3014 is currently approaching
the northeastern limb, and previously produced M-class flares
during the last solar rotation. No Earth-directed CMEs have been
observed. A partial filament eruption was observed in H-alpha
imagery from 07/2104UT near S40E52, with an associated southeast
CME visible in LASCO imagery from 07/2148UT. Model runs indicate
that this southeast CME is not geoeffective. A large filament
was observed lifting off the solar disk in the northwest quadrant,
visible in SDO and H-alpha imagery from 08/1600UT, with an associated
northwest CME visible in LASCO imagery from 08/1724UT. Further
analysis will be conducted to determine if this CME has an Earth-directed
component when more coronagraph imagery becomes available. The
solar wind speed on 08-Jun was at near background levels, ranging
from 299-339 km/s, and is currently near 330 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -7 nT. Bz
was intermittently southward between 0740-0820UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to remain at near background levels over 09-11
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 10010031
Darwin 2 11110021
Learmonth 3 10010031
Alice Springs 3 10010031
Gingin 4 10000042
Canberra 1 00010021
Hobart 2 10010021
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00020010
Casey 4 11110032
Mawson 19 42220064
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 3323 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jun 5 G0
10 Jun 5 G0
11 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Jun. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region, with an isolated period of G2 observed at Mawson in the
later half of the UT day. G0 conditions are expected over 09-11
Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jun Normal Normal Normal
10 Jun Normal Normal Normal
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 09-11 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jun 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 08-Jun were
near monthly predicted values to about 15-20% depressed. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values with occasional mild depressions
over 09-11 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jun
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 8.9 p/cc Temp: 23600 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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