[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Jun             04 Jun             05 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-June was at R0 level, with 
no significant flaring activity. There are currently 4 sunspot 
regions on the visible disk. Solar region AR3026 (N16W48 beta) 
and AR3023 (S15W39) produced very minor flare activity. A C1.2 
flare was observed at 02/0621UT and may be associated with activity 
from the eastern solar limb near S17. A solar filament located 
S30W30-S40W50 erupted from the solar disk at around 04-05UT on 
02 June. A subsequent westward CME was visible in LASCO C2 and 
C3 imagery. Enlil event modelling of this CME shows a minor impact 
late 05-06 June. An eastward narrow, non-Earth directed CME was 
visible in C2 and C3 imagery at around 06-07UT, possibly in association 
with the C1.2 flare event. The solar wind speed on 02-Jun continued 
a downward trend, decreasing from around 400 km/s to the current 
speed of near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +3 to -4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to 
be remain near background values for 03-05June, with a minor 
shock in the solar wind parameters is expected late 05 to early 
06 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121002
      Darwin               2   11111001
      Learmonth            2   11111002
      Alice Springs        1   00011002
      Gingin               3   10121012
      Canberra             2   01021001
      Hobart               1   00021001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     2   00032000
      Casey                6   22222003
      Mawson              15   43213115

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   3322 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Jun     5    G0
04 Jun     5    G0
05 Jun    20    Initially G0, chance G1 later in UT day.

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 02-Jun. An isolated G1 level was observed in 
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected for 03-04 June. 
There is the chance for G1 levels late in the UT day on 05 June/early 
06 June, due to a CME associated with a recent solar filament 
eruption.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 03 Jun. Moderately degraded HF conditions expected for middle 
to high latitudes for late 05 June and early 06 June due to the 
expected arrival of a CME.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Jun    50

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun    45    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread F observed local 
night hours for east coast Australia. MUFs are expected to be 
mostly near monthly predicted values during 03-05 June, with 
mildly depressed an degraded conditions expected for southern 
Australian region only on 06 June due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from a recent CME.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 465 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:   189000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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