[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jun 3 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 03 JUNE - 05 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jun 04 Jun 05 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 2-June was at R0 level, with
no significant flaring activity. There are currently 4 sunspot
regions on the visible disk. Solar region AR3026 (N16W48 beta)
and AR3023 (S15W39) produced very minor flare activity. A C1.2
flare was observed at 02/0621UT and may be associated with activity
from the eastern solar limb near S17. A solar filament located
S30W30-S40W50 erupted from the solar disk at around 04-05UT on
02 June. A subsequent westward CME was visible in LASCO C2 and
C3 imagery. Enlil event modelling of this CME shows a minor impact
late 05-06 June. An eastward narrow, non-Earth directed CME was
visible in C2 and C3 imagery at around 06-07UT, possibly in association
with the C1.2 flare event. The solar wind speed on 02-Jun continued
a downward trend, decreasing from around 400 km/s to the current
speed of near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +3 to -4nT. The solar wind speed is expected to
be remain near background values for 03-05June, with a minor
shock in the solar wind parameters is expected late 05 to early
06 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11121002
Darwin 2 11111001
Learmonth 2 11111002
Alice Springs 1 00011002
Gingin 3 10121012
Canberra 2 01021001
Hobart 1 00021001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jun :
Macquarie Island 2 00032000
Casey 6 22222003
Mawson 15 43213115
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 3322 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jun 5 G0
04 Jun 5 G0
05 Jun 20 Initially G0, chance G1 later in UT day.
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 02-Jun. An isolated G1 level was observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected for 03-04 June.
There is the chance for G1 levels late in the UT day on 05 June/early
06 June, due to a CME associated with a recent solar filament
eruption.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
04 Jun Normal Normal Fair-normal
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 03 Jun. Moderately degraded HF conditions expected for middle
to high latitudes for late 05 June and early 06 June due to the
expected arrival of a CME.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jun 50
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread F observed local
night hours for east coast Australia. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near monthly predicted values during 03-05 June, with
mildly depressed an degraded conditions expected for southern
Australian region only on 06 June due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity from a recent CME.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jun
Speed: 465 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 189000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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