[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 31 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 1 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 01 JUNE - 03 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 May:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 May:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jun             02 Jun             03 Jun
Activity     R0			R0		   R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   98/45              98/45              98/45

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-May was at R0 level, with 
no significant flaring activity (B-class flares only). AR3025 
(N28W73, beta) remains the most complex region, and will soon 
rotate over the western limb. There are two other numbered regions 
on the solar disk, AR3023 (S15W14, alpha) and AR3024 (S33W07, 
alpha), which are both stable. A small sunspot group started 
developing from 31/0200UT at N12W10, which has shown growth, 
but is not yet numbered. Solar activity is expected to be at 
R0 level on 01-03 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none are 
considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 31-May 
remains elevated with a downward trend, decreasing from around 
550 km/s to the current speed of near 500 km/s. The peak total 
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -5 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue a downward trend over 
01-03 Jun, although it is possible that a slight increase may 
be observed due to a possible weak CME impact on 01-Jun, from 
a CME first observed on 28-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 May: G0

Estimated Indices 31 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32223221
      Darwin               5   22122121
      Learmonth            9   32223222
      Alice Springs        6   22122221
      Gingin               9   32123231
      Canberra             7   32222221
      Hobart              10   32333221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 May :
      Macquarie Island    19   32445331
      Casey               11   33222242
      Mawson              51   55333675

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3321 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jun     8    G0
02 Jun     5    G0
03 Jun     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 31-May. G0 to G2 levels were observed in the 
Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected over 01-03 Jun. 
There is a slight chance of a mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
on 01-Jun due to a possible weak impact from a CME first observed 
on 28-May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for 01-03 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 May    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      77
May      51
Jun      54

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-May were 
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at 
Hobart between 0900-2200UT. MUFs are expected to be mostly near 
monthly predicted values during 01-03 Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 May
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:   560000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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