[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 31 09:30:54 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JULY - 02 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jul:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jul             01 Aug             02 Aug
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    91/36              88/32              86/29

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jul was at the R0 level. 
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar 
disk. AR3068(S18E34, beta) has shown spot growth. A new unnumbered 
region has developed near S20W16 and is currently classified 
as beta. All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 31-Jul 
to 02-Aug. No geoeffective CMEs have been observed. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 30-Jul ranged from 373 to 327 km/s, and 
is currently near 350 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field 
strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain near background levels over 31-Jul to 01-Aug, possibly 
increasing by late 02-Aug due to the effects of a high speed 
wind stream from a south polar coronal hole that is currently 
crossing the central meridian. .

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 30 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112211
      Darwin               4   11112211
      Learmonth            4   11112211
      Alice Springs        3   11102211
      Gingin               3   11112101
      Canberra             2   01102100
      Hobart               2   01112101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     2   00022001
      Casey                7   23222112
      Mawson              13   23222225

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   2100 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jul     8    G0
01 Aug     8    G0
02 Aug    16    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 30-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions 
are expected over 31-Jul to 02-Aug, with mildly disturbed conditions 
possible from late 02-Aug due to the effects of coronal hole 
high speed wind streams.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Aug      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected 
on 31-Jul to 02-Aug.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jul    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jul    50    Near predicted monthly values, depressions of 
                10-20% at times in Northern Australian regions
01 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values
02 Aug    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Jul were 
mostly near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed in the 
Australian region. Spread-F was observed in most Australian sites, 
and sporadic-E was observed at Cocos Islands and Canberra. Ionospheric 
conditions were degraded during local night hours in Northern 
Australia, particularly near Darwin. The cause of these degraded 
conditions is unknown. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values over 31-Jul to 02-Aug, with possible depressions 
of 10-20% at times in the Northern Australian region. .

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jul
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:    59400 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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