[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 28 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 29 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JULY - 31 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jul: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jul 30 Jul 31 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Jul was at the R0 level.
There are currently three numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk. AR3068 (S16E56, beta) has shown spot development. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 29-31 Jul. No geoeffective
CMEs were observed. A western CME was observed from 28/1436UT
in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery. An associated eruption is visible
on the western limb near S12 in SDO imagery from 28/1348UT. Model
runs indicate that this CME has no geoeffective component. The
solar wind speed on UT day 28-Jul declined, ranging from 345
to 461 km/s and is currently near 370 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline over 29-31 Jul, with a possibility of a minor increase
over 29-30 Jul due to high speed wind effects from a small equatorial
coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 12203120
Darwin 4 12212111
Learmonth 6 22213120
Alice Springs 4 12202121
Gingin 4 11203120
Canberra 3 11203010
Hobart 4 02203010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jul :
Macquarie Island 5 01204100
Casey 10 34312121
Mawson 19 43423153
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 8 2222 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jul 10 G0
30 Jul 10 G0
31 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 at Mawson.
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 29-31 Jul, with mildly
disturbed conditions possible on 29-30 Jul due to the effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 29-31 Jul, with the possibility of mildly degraded conditions
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity over 29-30
Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jul 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
30 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
31 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 28-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Darwin,
Hobart, Learmonth and Townsville during local night hours. MUFs
are generally expected to be near monthly predicted values over
29-31 Jul, with the possibility of mildly degraded conditions
due to a possible increase in geomagnetic activity over 29-30
Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jul
Speed: 431 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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