[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 27 09:30:51 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JULY - 29 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jul:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jul             28 Jul             29 Jul
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    98/45              98/45              96/43

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Jul was at the R0 level, 
with a C8.5 flare from AR3060 (N14W89) which has since decayed 
as it approached the northwest limb. There are currently five 
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3059 (S09W77, alpha) 
appears stable and will soon rotate over the western limb. A 
new sunspot region, AR3067 (N20E68, beta), has recently rotated 
onto the solar disk and appears to be decaying. All other sunspot 
regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level over 27-29 Jul. A narrow west-directed 
CME was observed, visible in STEREO-A and LASCO C2 coronagraph 
imagery from 26/1623UT, likely associated with the C8.5 flare 
from AR3060. Model runs indicate this CME does not contain an 
Earth-directed component. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been 
observed. The solar wind speed on 26-Jul ranged from 450 to 375 
km/s and is currently near 405 km/s with a declining trend. The 
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and 
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to continue to decline to near background 
levels over 27-29 Jul due to waning coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 26 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   32022001
      Darwin               3   22121001
      Learmonth            5   32121002
      Alice Springs        3   31021001
      Gingin               5   32012102
      Canberra             3   31012001
      Hobart               2   21012001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     3   21013100
      Casey                9   43221112
      Mawson              30   65132026

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   3200 1113     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jul     5    G0
28 Jul     5    G0
29 Jul     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 26-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in 
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1-G2 at Mawson. 
G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 27-29 Jul.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 27-29 Jul.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jul    57

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
28 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
29 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 26-Jul were 
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at several 
locations during local night hours. MUFs are generally expected 
to be near monthly predicted values over 27-29 Jul.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jul
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    97400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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