[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 23 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JULY - 25 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jul: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jul 24 Jul 25 Jul
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jul was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently eight
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3064 (N11E05, beta)
and AR3065 (S18E05, beta) have shown spot development over the
24 hour period. AR3058 (N13W36, alpha), AR3060 (N14W22, alpha),
and AR3063 (N13W13, alpha) have decayed over the 24 hour period.
All other sunspot regions are stable. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level, with a chance of R1 over 23-25 Jul. Several
CMEs were observed but none are considered to be geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on 22-Jul was enhanced, ranging from 408
to 587 km/s, and is currently near 550 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT and the north-south IMF component
(IMF, Bz) range was +7 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 23-25 Jul due to ongoing coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects combined with a CME impact on
UT day 23-Jul, from a CME first observed on 21-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 32220211
Darwin 6 33220101
Learmonth 6 32220211
Alice Springs 6 33220101
Gingin 6 32220211
Canberra 6 32320201
Hobart 8 32331211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jul :
Macquarie Island 9 22441110
Casey 12 34331222
Mawson 24 65431213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21 2123 3644
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jul 25 G1
24 Jul 15 G0, chance of G1
25 Jul 9 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 20 July and
is current for 22-24 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 22-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods
of G2 and G3 observed at Mawson. G1 geomagnetic conditions are
expected on UT day 23-Jul, with a chance of G1 on 24-Jul, due
to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
and an impact from a CME first observed on 21-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jul Fair Fair Fair-poor
24 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be mildly
to moderately degraded on UT day 23-Jul, particularly at middle
to high latitudes, due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and an impact from a CME first observed
on 21-Jul. Conditions are expected to return to normal from 24-Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jul 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Jul were
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed across the
Australian region during local night hours. Significantly enhanced
HF conditions were observed at Cocos Islands over local day.
Periods of sporadic E were observed at Hobart, Learmonth, Norfolk,
and Townsville. MUFs are generally expected to be near monthly
predicted values over 23-25 Jul, with mild degradations possible
over 23-24 Jul due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and an impact from a CME first observed
on 21-Jul.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jul
Speed: 377 km/sec Density: 12.7 p/cc Temp: 65400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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