[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 21 09:30:52 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JULY - 23 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jul: 133/87


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jul             22 Jul             23 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jul was at the R0 level, 
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently nine 
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3056 (S19W68, beta) 
appears unstable. AR3057 (N15W53, beta) has shown decay in its 
trailer spots, as has AR3060 (N14E04, beta). AR3061 (N24W79, 
alpha) will soon rotate over the western limb. AR3064 (N11E31, 
beta) is unstable. All other sunspot regions are either stable 
or in decay. Despite the large number of sunspot regions, solar 
activity has been generally low. Solar activity is expected to 
be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Jul. Several CMEs were observed, 
but none are considered geoeffective. Two coronal holes are now 
in the western hemisphere and are expected to influence the solar 
wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on 20-Jul 
ranged from 370 to 450km/s, and is currently near 370 km/s. The 
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (IMF, Bz) range was +7 to -6 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 21-23 Jul 
due to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 20 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12011121
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Learmonth            4   12111112
      Alice Springs        3   12011121
      Gingin               4   12011122
      Canberra             3   11011121
      Hobart               3   11011121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jul :
      Macquarie Island     6   22033011
      Casey                6   23221121
      Mawson              11   43222231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25   3443 4444     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jul    10    G0
22 Jul    18    G0, chance of G1
23 Jul    20    G0-G1

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 34 was issued on 20 July and 
is current for 22-24 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 20-Jul. An 
increase in geomagnetic activity is expected from 22-Jul due 
to the onset of coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
23 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 21-Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to 
high latitudes over 22-23 Jul due to the onset of coronal hole 
high speed wind streams. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Jul    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jul    65    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 56 was issued on 18 
July and is current for 18-21 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 20-Jul were near monthly predicted values. Spread-F 
was observed across the Australian region during local night 
hours. MUFs are generally expected to be near monthly predicted 
values over 21-23 Jul, mild degradations are possible from 22-Jul 
due to an anticipated increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jul
Speed: 469 km/sec  Density:    8.2 p/cc  Temp:   111000 K  Bz:  -7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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