[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 1 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jul 02 Jul 03 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 95/41 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Jun was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently three
numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, the most complex
of which is AR3045 (S12E29, beta) and is unstable. AR3040 (S14W48,
alpha) and AR3042 (N08W47, alpha) are both in decay. A new unnumbered
region (N17E73, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar disk,
and is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 01-03 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. A
large partial halo CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 imagery
from 30/0336UT in the northwest, and associated with ejected
material beyond the western limb, visible in SDO imagery from
29/2218UT. Analysis confirms this is a farside event, and is
not considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 30-Jun
was mildly elevated with a declining trend, ranging between 340-440
km/s, and is currently near background levels. The peak total
interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 4 nT, and
the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +3 to -3 nT. The
solar wind speed is expected to remain at near background levels
over 01-02 Jul, increasing from 03-Jul due to the anticipated
arrival of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 11111000
Darwin 1 11100001
Learmonth 2 11211000
Alice Springs 0 01100000
Gingin 1 10102000
Canberra 1 01011000
Hobart 1 10111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00011000
Casey 4 22212100
Mawson 11 42412113
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 3222 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jul 5 G0
02 Jul 5 G0
03 Jul 16 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 30-Jun. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected in the Australian region over 01-02 Jul.
G1 with a chance of G2 conditions are expected from 03-Jul due
to the anticipated arrival of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jul Normal Normal Normal
02 Jul Normal Normal Normal
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 01-02 Jul, with degradations possible from 03-Jul to the
anticipated arrival of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jun 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
02 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
03 Jul 45 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values, with mild depressions observed
at some sites. Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to slightly depressed over 01-03 Jul, with degraded conditions
possible from 03-Jul to the anticipated arrival of two CMEs first
observed on 29-Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 489 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 203000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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