[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 16 10:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JANUARY - 18 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jan: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 108/58 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 15 January. There are
eight numbered regions on the visible disc with AR2929 (N08W14)
the largest region currently on the solar disk and appears to
be showing slight growth, other regions are currently relatively
small and magnetically simple. A coronal mass ejection off the
north west solar limb on 15 Jan is currently considered to be
a far side event. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
on 16-18 January, with a chance of C-class flares and a slight
chance of an M-class flare. During the last 24 hours, the solar
wind speed increased from 436 to 626km/sec as the Earth entered
a coronal hole high speed wind stream. The total IMF peaked at
13nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +11/-12nT. The solar
wind is expected to remain elevated today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jan : A K
Australian Region 15 33323334
Cocos Island 11 32223323
Darwin 11 32322323
Townsville 17 33423334
Learmonth 17 42333334
Alice Springs 13 32332324
Gingin 18 43333334
Canberra 15 33323334
Hobart 17 33323434
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jan :
Macquarie Island 27 33246533
Casey 34 46533345
Mawson 44 44334476
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 0010 1245
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jan 20 Active
17 Jan 17 Active
18 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 13 January and
is current for 15-16 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to active on 15 January UT. Quiet to severe
storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Predominately unsettled
to active conditions with a chance of isolated minor storm periods
are expected on UT days 16 and 17 January due to continuing coronal
hole wind stream effects and a possible glancing blow from a
weak coronal mass ejection associated with a solar filament eruption
on 14 Jan. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected for UT day
18 January
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jan Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
17 Jan Normal Fair-normal Fair
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions were observed on 15 January for
middle to high latitudes. Mildly degraded conditions are possible
in the mid and high latitudes on UT day 17 and 18 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jan 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jan 20 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
17 Jan 25 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 14
January and is current for 14-16 Jan. Australian regional Maximum
Usable Frequencies (MUFs) were variable with some sites depressed
by up to 30% during the local day yesterday (00-08UT 15 January),
and degraded conditions were also observed local night hours
on regional ionograms. The ionospheric variability/depressed
conditions were stronger than expected and followed geomagnetic
activity induced by a coronal hole wind stream. MUFs are expected
to be initially mildly depressed today then recovering to near
normal as the day progresses. In general mildly depressed and
degraded conditions are expected after local dawn, and during
local night hours for interval 16-17 Jan, particularly for the
southern Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jan
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 57200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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