[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 14 10:31:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JANUARY - 16 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jan: 106/55
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 106/55 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 13 January, with
a few weak C-class flares. There are currently seven numbered
regions on the visible disc. Solar activity is expected to be
very low on 14-16 January, with a chance of more C-class flares.
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available images.
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was near its nominal
levels, in the range of 350-400 km/s. The total IMF was mostly
steady near 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +5/-4
nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near its nominal
levels on UT day 14 January and for most parts of UT day 15 January.
>From late UT day 15 January, the solar wind is expected to enhance
gradually as a Southern coronal hole with extensions into the
equatorial region reaches geoeffective location on the solar
disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 11010012
Cocos Island 1 11010011
Darwin 2 11110012
Townsville 2 11010012
Learmonth 3 11010013
Alice Springs 2 11010012
Gingin 2 11010012
Canberra 2 11010002
Hobart 2 11010012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 10000001
Casey 12 34322223
Mawson 8 22121242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Jan 5 Quiet
15 Jan 15 Unsettled to Active
16 Jan 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on 13 January UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed
in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Australia/NZ
today, 14 January. Unsettled to active conditions with a chance
of minor storms on UT day 15 and 16 January due to arrival of
the coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jan Normal Normal Normal
15 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal conditions are expected on 14 January.
Mildly degraded conditions are possible in the high latitudes
on UT day 15 and 16 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Jan 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly near predicted to mildly enhanced MUFs were observed
in the Australian region on 13 January. Sporadic E and spread
F observed at some Australian sites. Mostly near predicted MUFs
are expected on 14 to 16 January. HF propagation conditions are
expected to be slightly degraded on UT day 16 January due to
the aftermath of the forecasted disturbed conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Jan
Speed: 380 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 59900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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