[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 12 10:31:01 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JANUARY - 14 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jan: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jan             13 Jan             14 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             102/50             104/53

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 11 January UT with one C1.0 
flare at 0838 UT from region 2927. There are currently four numbered 
regions on the visible disc. Regions 2925 (S35W05) and 2927 (S20E42) 
appear stable, region 2924 (S32W39) has displayed minor intermediate 
spot development and 2926 (N22W34) has shown slow growth. Solar 
activity is expected to be very low to low on 12-14 January. 
There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in the available images. 
The solar wind speed range on 11 January UT was 362-422 km/s. 
The total IMF peaked at 6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range 
was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to be mostly near nominal 
levels on 12-14 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12012201
      Cocos Island         2   11011200
      Darwin               4   12112201
      Townsville           4   12112211
      Learmonth            3   12012201
      Alice Springs        3   02012201
      Gingin               4   22012300
      Canberra             3   12002200
      Hobart               3   12111200    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     2   10101200
      Casey               12   24333311
      Mawson              11   33223420

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jan : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2100 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jan     7    Quiet
13 Jan     7    Quiet
14 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on 11 January UT. Quiet to active conditions were observed 
in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Australia/NZ 
on 12-14 January. Some unsettled conditions are possible late 
on 14 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 11 January. Mostly 
normal conditions are expected on 12-14 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jan    47

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% 00-01, 09-11 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
13 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
14 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly near predicted to mildly enhanced MUFs were observed 
in the Australian region on 11 January. Sporadic E and spread 
F observed at Niue 09-18 UT. Spread F observed at Darwin 15-19 
UT. Sporadic E observed at Perth and Learmonth 00-03 UT. Near 
predicted MUFs are expected 12 to 14 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jan
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    5.0 p/cc  Temp:   107000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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