[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 10 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 9-Jan UT. There are currently
four numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 2924 (S32W13)
has reduced in area, while 2925 (S35E321), 2926 (N22W07) and
2927 (S20E69) are magnetically simple. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. The solar wind disturbance from 8-Jan continued
into the first part of 9-Jan, with the north-south (Bz) component
of the IMF dipping to -13 nT and total IMF (Bt) reaching 20 nT.
IMF has since settled to ambient levels while the solar wind
speed has reduced from its peak of 511 km/s to around 470 km/s.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for 10-12 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Unsettled to
active, then quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A K
Australian Region 7 32322111
Cocos Island 7 32322210
Darwin 7 32322111
Townsville 9 42322121
Learmonth 10 43322211
Alice Springs 8 33322111
Gingin 10 43223211
Canberra 8 32322121
Hobart 8 32322121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 32212110
Casey 30 65622222
Mawson 25 44533235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 0010 1253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jan 7 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan 5 Quiet
12 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region remained
unsettled to active early 9-Jan and then returned to quiet levels
as the coronal hole solar wind disturbance waned. Storm periods
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
for Australia/NZ during 10-12 Jan, with some unsettled periods
possible on 10-Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal
11 Jan Normal Normal Normal
12 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: On 9-Jan, HF conditions were mostly normal, with some
depressed periods. Mostly normal conditions are expected for
10-12 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jan 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 7
January and is current for 8-10 Jan. Mostly near predicted MUFs
in the Australian region were observed on 9-Jan, with enhancements
at some locations and minor depressions at others. Mostly normal
HF conditions are expected for 10-12 Jan.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 20.6 p/cc Temp: 18600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list