[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 10 10:31:04 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JANUARY - 12 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jan: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Jan             11 Jan             12 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50             102/50             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on 9-Jan UT. There are currently 
four numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 2924 (S32W13) 
has reduced in area, while 2925 (S35E321), 2926 (N22W07) and 
2927 (S20E69) are magnetically simple. No Earth-directed CMEs 
were observed. The solar wind disturbance from 8-Jan continued 
into the first part of 9-Jan, with the north-south (Bz) component 
of the IMF dipping to -13 nT and total IMF (Bt) reaching 20 nT. 
IMF has since settled to ambient levels while the solar wind 
speed has reduced from its peak of 511 km/s to around 470 km/s. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for 10-12 Jan.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jan: Unsettled to 
active, then quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   32322111
      Cocos Island         7   32322210
      Darwin               7   32322111
      Townsville           9   42322121
      Learmonth           10   43322211
      Alice Springs        8   33322111
      Gingin              10   43223211
      Canberra             8   32322121
      Hobart               8   32322121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   32212110
      Casey               30   65622222
      Mawson              25   44533235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             11   0010 1253     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Jan     7    Quiet to Unsettled
11 Jan     5    Quiet
12 Jan     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region remained 
unsettled to active early 9-Jan and then returned to quiet levels 
as the coronal hole solar wind disturbance waned. Storm periods 
were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
for Australia/NZ during 10-12 Jan, with some unsettled periods 
possible on 10-Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: On 9-Jan, HF conditions were mostly normal, with some 
depressed periods. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 
10-12 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Jan    43

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
11 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values
12 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 7 
January and is current for 8-10 Jan. Mostly near predicted MUFs 
in the Australian region were observed on 9-Jan, with enhancements 
at some locations and minor depressions at others. Mostly normal 
HF conditions are expected for 10-12 Jan.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jan
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:   20.6 p/cc  Temp:    18600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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