[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Feb 28 10:31:08 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 FEBRUARY - 02 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Feb: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Feb 01 Mar 02 Mar
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 99/46 102/50 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 27 Feb, with one
weak C-class flare from AR 2957. Solar activity is expected to
be very low for the next three UT days, 28 Feb - 02 Mar, with
a chance of C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in the available imagery. On UT day 27 Feb, the solar wind speed
increased from 350 km/s to 520 km/s in response to small patchy
equatorial coronal hole effects. The interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) peaked to 14 nT at 27/0600 UT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) ranged between +10 nT and -13 nT. These perturbation
of the interplanetary magnetic fields could be due to the corotation
interaction region associated with the coronal holes. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at these mildly elevated levels
for the next few days as a series of small equatorial coronal
holes influence the earth.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Feb : A K
Australian Region 8 22322321
Darwin 8 22321321
Townsville 8 12321322
Learmonth 8 22322321
Alice Springs 8 22322321
Gingin 10 12333321
Canberra 8 33322110
Hobart 13 13443311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Feb :
Macquarie Island 22 02464430
Casey 17 35431322
Mawson 17 23532431
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 27 Feb. Quiet to active levels were
observed in Antarctica. These disturbed conditions were due to
the arrival of coronal hole effects. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of
active periods for the next two UT days, 27 Feb - 01 Mar, as
coronal hole effects persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Feb 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near the predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on
27 Feb. Similar MUF conditions are expected on 28 Feb to 02 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Feb
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 69900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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