[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 17 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 FEBRUARY - 19 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Feb: 103/52
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Feb 18 Feb 19 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 February, with
no notable flares. Low solar activity is expected for the next
three UT days (17-19 February), with a chance of C-class flares.
Two CMEs were observed in the recent LASCO C2 imagery; first
starting at 15/2200 UT and second starting at 16/1300. Both these
CMEs are not expected to impact earth. The 15/2200 CME was rather
impressive, erupting from the far-side near the north-east limb.
A mild enhancement in the 10 MeV proton flux was observed starting
at 16/0400 UT because of this far-side CME. On UT day 16 February,
the solar wind speed was near its nominal level, ranging from
350 km/s to 400 km/s. The total (Bt) interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) was mostly steady near 6 nT, and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 2/-6 nT. The solar wind
is expected to be mostly near its nominal levels for the next
three days (17-19 February), with a chance of mild enhancements.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Feb : A K
Australian Region 7 11112332
Darwin 7 21012332
Townsville 8 11123332
Learmonth 7 21012332
Alice Springs 6 11012332
Gingin 9 21112342
Canberra 3 00112-22
Hobart 8 11222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Feb :
Macquarie Island 8 01223331
Casey 18 24532333
Mawson 26 43223555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Feb :
Darwin 17 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1200 0121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Feb 7 Quiet
18 Feb 5 Quiet
19 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on UT day 16 February. Quiet
to active periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The
observed mild disturbed conditions were due to the IMF Bz staying
predominantly southward between 16/1300 UT and 16/2200 UT. The
3-day (17-19 February) outlook is for the geomagnetic activity
to be mostly quiet, with a chance of isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
18 Feb Normal Normal Normal
19 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF condition expected over the next few days.
Low chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Feb 75
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Feb 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian
region were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels
on UT day 16 February. This was in response to high levels of
solar ionising flux. Ionospheric frequencies of support are expected
to be near to 20% above predicted monthly values for the next
three UT days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Feb
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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