[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 14 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 15 10:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 15 FEBRUARY - 17 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 1731UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was low to moderate on UT day 14 February,
with one low M-class flare and one C-class. Both flares were
from solar region AR2941, currently at N25W66. Further isolated
low level M class flare is possible from this region, today (UT
day 15 February). Mostly low solar activity is expected from
UT day 16 February, with a chance of C-class flares. There were
no Earth directed CMEs observed in the available satellite imagery.
On UT day 14 February, the solar wind speed ranged from 510 to
430 km/sec, with an overall declining trend. The total (Bt) interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) ranged between 1 nT and 7 nT, and the north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 3/-3 nT. The solar wind
is expected to continue on a gradual declining trend today, 15
February. Mostly nominal solar wind speed is expected from UT
day 16 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Feb : A K
Australian Region 5 11122221
Darwin 4 11121211
Townsville 5 21122221
Learmonth 7 21222322
Alice Springs 5 12122211
Gingin 7 21222321
Canberra 3 11121110
Hobart 5 12221221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Feb :
Macquarie Island 7 12232310
Casey 16 34532222
Mawson 21 43323354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11 3232 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Feb 5 Quiet
17 Feb 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at quiet levels on UT day 14 February. Quiet to active
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. The 3-day (15-17
February) outlook is for the geomagnetic activity to be mostly
quiet. Isolated unsettled periods are possible today (15 February)
due to mildly elevated solar wind conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Feb Normal Normal Normal
17 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal HF condition expected over the next few days.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible on UT day 15 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Feb 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Feb 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Frequencies of ionospheric support in the Australian
region were near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels
on UT day 14 February. Ionospheric frequencies of support are
expected to be near to 15% above predicted monthly values. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible on UT day 15 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Feb
Speed: 513 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 305000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list