[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 05 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 6 10:31:04 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Feb             07 Feb             08 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 05 February, with low 
C flares from region 2936. There are five regions on the disc 
with 2936 (N16W82) still active and now rotating off the disc. 
Regions 2938 (N18W56, Bxo/beta) and 2939 (S16E04, Cko/beta) have 
decayed slightly, consolidation in the leader and trailer regions 
has occurred in 2940 (N18W02, Eri/beta), and 2941 (N24E64, Eai/beta-gamma) 
appears stable. There is spot development near S08W47. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate on 06-08 February. 
There were no Earth directed coronal mass ejections observed. 
The solar wind speed was below 500 km/s until about 0830 UT then 
increased but remained mostly below 575 km/s with peak speed 
of 616 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) 
strength was 9 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6/-8 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated over 06-07 February 
from coronal hole effects, beginning to decline on 08 February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   12224222
      Darwin               8   22223222
      Townsville           9   22224222
      Learmonth           11   22224332
      Alice Springs        7   12223222
      Gingin              11   22224332
      Canberra             5   02223110
      Hobart               9   12324221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    14   22344331
      Casey               26   34643333
      Mawson              24   44434344

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             36   4434 4664     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Feb    12    Quiet to Active with a chance of an isolated 
                Minor Storm period
07 Feb    10    Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb     7    Quiet

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 4 February and 
is current for 5-6 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to active on UT day 05 February. Conditions 
were quiet to active at southern high latitudes with one period 
of major storming at Casey, 06-09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to active on 06 February with a chance 
of an isolated minor storm period. On 07-08 February, mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions with some MUF depressions 
at mid to high latitudes on 06 February, improving over the period. 
Mostly normal conditions are expected on 07-08 February. Shortwave 
fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Feb     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 45% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to
      50% during 13-17 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Feb    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to 
                20%
07 Feb    40    Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 4 
February and is current for 4-6 Feb. SWS HF Communications Warning 
16 was issued on 5 February and is current for 5-6 Feb. Frequencies 
were depressed at most locations on 05 February with deeper depressions 
during local day. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 19-22 UT, 
Canberra 07-14 UT, Hobart 14-19 UT and Norfolk Is. during daytime. 
Depressions likely at times at mid and high latitudes on 06 February 
with propagation conditions expected to improve. Isolated shortwave 
fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec  Density:    9.1 p/cc  Temp:   196000 K  Bz:  -6 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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