[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 05 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Feb 6 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 FEBRUARY - 08 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Feb 07 Feb 08 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 05 February, with low
C flares from region 2936. There are five regions on the disc
with 2936 (N16W82) still active and now rotating off the disc.
Regions 2938 (N18W56, Bxo/beta) and 2939 (S16E04, Cko/beta) have
decayed slightly, consolidation in the leader and trailer regions
has occurred in 2940 (N18W02, Eri/beta), and 2941 (N24E64, Eai/beta-gamma)
appears stable. There is spot development near S08W47. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate on 06-08 February.
There were no Earth directed coronal mass ejections observed.
The solar wind speed was below 500 km/s until about 0830 UT then
increased but remained mostly below 575 km/s with peak speed
of 616 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF)
strength was 9 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +6/-8 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated over 06-07 February
from coronal hole effects, beginning to decline on 08 February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 05 Feb : A K
Australian Region 9 12224222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 9 22224222
Learmonth 11 22224332
Alice Springs 7 12223222
Gingin 11 22224332
Canberra 5 02223110
Hobart 9 12324221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Feb :
Macquarie Island 14 22344331
Casey 26 34643333
Mawson 24 44434344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 36 4434 4664
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Feb 12 Quiet to Active with a chance of an isolated
Minor Storm period
07 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Feb 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 4 February and
is current for 5-6 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to active on UT day 05 February. Conditions
were quiet to active at southern high latitudes with one period
of major storming at Casey, 06-09 UT. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to active on 06 February with a chance
of an isolated minor storm period. On 07-08 February, mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are likely.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions with some MUF depressions
at mid to high latitudes on 06 February, improving over the period.
Mostly normal conditions are expected on 07-08 February. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Feb 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Enhanced to
50% during 13-17 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
07 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
08 Feb 65 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 15 was issued on 4
February and is current for 4-6 Feb. SWS HF Communications Warning
16 was issued on 5 February and is current for 5-6 Feb. Frequencies
were depressed at most locations on 05 February with deeper depressions
during local day. Sporadic E observed at Cocos Is. 19-22 UT,
Canberra 07-14 UT, Hobart 14-19 UT and Norfolk Is. during daytime.
Depressions likely at times at mid and high latitudes on 06 February
with propagation conditions expected to improve. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Feb
Speed: 519 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 196000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list