[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 21 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 22 09:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 22 AUGUST - 24 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Aug: 97/44
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Aug 23 Aug 24 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 96/43 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently four
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and three
unnumbered regions. AR3085 (N30E16, beta) recently appeared on
the solar disk and has exhibited spot development. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 22-24 Aug, with a chance
of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind
speed on UT day 21-Aug was elevated, ranging from 505 to 630
km/s, and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain elevated over 22-24 Aug, due to the combined effects
of the arrival of recent CMEs and small coronal holes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 21 Aug : A K
Australian Region 10 22232422
Darwin 10 22232422
Learmonth 13 33232432
Alice Springs 9 22131422
Gingin 12 32232432
Canberra 10 22132422
Hobart 10 22232422
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Aug :
Macquarie Island 17 32143532
Casey 20 34333533
Mawson 37 55333564
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 13 4431 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Aug 25 G0, chance of G1
23 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
24 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 20 August and
is current for 21-22 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 21-Aug. Mostly G0-G1 conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period
of G2 in Mawson. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 22-24 Aug, with periods of G1 activity possible during 22-23
Aug due to the expected arrival of recent CMEs and coronal hole
high speed wind streams.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Aug Fair Fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
23 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high
latitudes over 22-24 Aug, particularly during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Aug 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
23 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
24 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Spread-F
and sporadic-E were observed during local night in the Australian
region. Regional MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed over 22-24 Aug with continued
degradation during local night hours.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Aug
Speed: 538 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list