[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 31 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 1 09:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 01 AUGUST - 03 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jul: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 90/34 92/37
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 31-Jul was at the R0 level,
with a C9.3 flare from beyond the eastern limb. There are currently
two numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3062
(S25W80, alpha) appears stable and will soon rotate over the
western limb. AR3068 (S16E16, beta) has shown minor growth in
its trailer spots. Two new unnumbered sunspot regions have developed
at S14W14 (alpha) and N16E65 (alpha). Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 01-03 Aug. Several CMEs were observed,
but none are considered geoeffective. A west-directed CME was
observed, visible in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 31/0125UT.
This is currently considered a farside event and not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on UT day 31-Jul ranged from 315 to 500
km/s, and is currently near 475 km/s due to the earlier than
anticipated arrival of coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10 to -9
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to increase over 01-03 Aug
due to high speed solar wind streams from a south polar coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 31 Jul : A K
Australian Region 7 12203312
Darwin 5 12112222
Learmonth 6 12213212
Alice Springs 7 12203312
Gingin 7 12203312
Canberra 5 11103302
Hobart 5 11103302
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 01004401
Casey 9 33322212
Mawson 10 33322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 2111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Aug 16 G0
02 Aug 16 G0
03 Aug 16 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 31-Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 01-03 Aug, with mildly disturbed conditions
expected due to the effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
02 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 01-03 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jul 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Aug 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
02 Aug 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Aug 40 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31-Jul were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed in the
Australian region. Ionospheric conditions were degraded during
local night hours in Northern Australia. The cause of these degraded
conditions is unknown. Spread-F was observed in most Australian
sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 01-03 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jul
Speed: 346 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 49000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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