[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 28 09:31:02 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Apr 29 Apr 30 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 125/78 110/60
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 27 Apr was at R0 level
with several low-level C-class flares (AR2994, AR2996, AR3001)
and one C7.7 flare from AR2996. Regions AR2994 and AR2996 have
the potential to produce M-class flares, although this has not
yet been observed. There are few other solar regions on the visible
disk and these have not been flaring. AR2994 is on the far western
limb and will soon rotate to the farside of the Sun within the
next 48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be in the R0-R1
range. Several CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours,
two of which are nearside events, first observed at 27/0848UT
and 27/1505UT, both in the NW quadrant. The aforementioned C7.7
flare is associated with the later nearside CME. Preliminary
model runs indicate that the impact from the two nearside CMEs
will arrive at Earth late on 29 Apr. The solar wind speed range
on 27 Apr was 390-500 km/s, which has trended upwards. The peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 12
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-11
nT. Bz was southward oriented between 27/1150UT and 27/1600UT.
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase slightly
due to coronal hole effects over the next two days (28-29 Apr).
Solar wind speed is expected to be further enhanced late on 29
Apr due to impacts of the CMEs first observed on 27 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: G0-G1
Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A K
Australian Region 13 12205333
Darwin 11 22204333
Townsville 14 22215333
Learmonth 14 22215333
Alice Springs 13 12105333
Gingin 15 12215433
Canberra 12 02105333
Hobart 13 12105333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
Macquarie Island 23 01006632
Casey 15 34313333
Mawson 18 13214435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1011 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Apr 20 G0 with a chance of G1
29 Apr 30 G0-G1 with a chance of G2
30 Apr 15 G0 with a chance of G1
COMMENT: G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 27 Apr, with G0-G2 conditions observed in the
Antarctic region over the same period. The observed disturbed
conditions were due to a prolonged period of southward-oriented
IMF Bz, and a mildly elevated solar wind speed. G0-G1 conditions
are likely over the next 3 days due to both coronal hole effects
and impending impact of coronal mass ejections first observed
on 27 Apr. There is a chance of G2 conditions on 29 Apr due to
CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
29 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 27 Apr. Normal to
degraded propagation conditions are expected on 28-30 Apr with
short-wave fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Apr 84
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 150% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Apr 85 Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27 Apr were
mostly above monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be
15-30% above monthly predicted values on 28-30 Apr due to high
levels of solar ionising flux. Short-wave fadeouts are possible
for the next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 57700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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