[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 April 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 28 09:31:02 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 28 APRIL - 30 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Apr: 142/96


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Apr             29 Apr             30 Apr
Activity     R0-R1		R0-R1		   R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             125/78             110/60

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 27 Apr was at R0 level 
with several low-level C-class flares (AR2994, AR2996, AR3001) 
and one C7.7 flare from AR2996. Regions AR2994 and AR2996 have 
the potential to produce M-class flares, although this has not 
yet been observed. There are few other solar regions on the visible 
disk and these have not been flaring. AR2994 is on the far western 
limb and will soon rotate to the farside of the Sun within the 
next 48 hours. Solar activity is expected to be in the R0-R1 
range. Several CMEs have been observed in the last 24 hours, 
two of which are nearside events, first observed at 27/0848UT 
and 27/1505UT, both in the NW quadrant. The aforementioned C7.7 
flare is associated with the later nearside CME. Preliminary 
model runs indicate that the impact from the two nearside CMEs 
will arrive at Earth late on 29 Apr. The solar wind speed range 
on 27 Apr was 390-500 km/s, which has trended upwards. The peak 
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 12 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +10/-11 
nT. Bz was southward oriented between 27/1150UT and 27/1600UT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to continue to increase slightly 
due to coronal hole effects over the next two days (28-29 Apr). 
Solar wind speed is expected to be further enhanced late on 29 
Apr due to impacts of the CMEs first observed on 27 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Apr: G0-G1

Estimated Indices 27 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   12205333
      Darwin              11   22204333
      Townsville          14   22215333
      Learmonth           14   22215333
      Alice Springs       13   12105333
      Gingin              15   12215433
      Canberra            12   02105333
      Hobart              13   12105333    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    23   01006632
      Casey               15   34313333
      Mawson              18   13214435

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            11   (Quiet)
      Hobart               7   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             17                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1011 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Apr    20    G0 with a chance of G1
29 Apr    30    G0-G1 with a chance of G2
30 Apr    15    G0 with a chance of G1

COMMENT: G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 27 Apr, with G0-G2 conditions observed in the 
Antarctic region over the same period. The observed disturbed 
conditions were due to a prolonged period of southward-oriented 
IMF Bz, and a mildly elevated solar wind speed. G0-G1 conditions 
are likely over the next 3 days due to both coronal hole effects 
and impending impact of coronal mass ejections first observed 
on 27 Apr. There is a chance of G2 conditions on 29 Apr due to 
CME impacts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
29 Apr      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 27 Apr. Normal to 
degraded propagation conditions are expected on 28-30 Apr with 
short-wave fadeouts possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Apr    84

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Enhanced by 150% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 60% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Apr    85    Near to 30% above predicted monthly values
29 Apr    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Apr    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 27 Apr were 
mostly above monthly predicted values. MUFs are expected to be 
15-30% above monthly predicted values on 28-30 Apr due to high 
levels of solar ionising flux. Short-wave fadeouts are possible 
for the next two days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B9.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    57700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

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Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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