[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 April 22 issued 2337 UT on 04 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Tue Apr 5 09:37:37 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr: 128/81

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: On UT day 4 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level. Solar 
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels 5 to 7 Apr. The 10 
MeV proton flux continued declining and is now near background 
levels. There were two CMEs from the west limb at 4/0612 UT and 
4/1100 UT which are unlikely to be geoeffective. A CME from near 
N24E25 at 4/1136 UT may graze Earth on 8 Apr. A C2.7 flare at 
4/2113 UT resulted in a filament eruption near S20E15; analysis 
will occur once images become available. On UT day 4 Apr, the 
solar wind speed range was 448 to 526 km/s. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) strength (Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +3/-6 nT. Solar wind parameters 
are expected to be mostly near background levels on 5 Apr. Late 
on 5 or 6 Apr, the 3 Apr CME is expected to elevate solar wind 
conditions into 7 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 04 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   32222111
      Darwin               5   22222101
      Townsville           6   32222111
      Learmonth            8   42222111
      Alice Springs        6   32222101
      Gingin              11   42222---
      Canberra             5   32222100
      Hobart               6   32222210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    11   33333220
      Casey               12   43332221
      Mawson              39   65543361

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   3110 1223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr    11    G0
06 Apr    20    G0 - G1
07 Apr    12    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 3 April and 
is current for 4-5 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly at G0 levels on UT day 4 Apr. G0 to G2 levels 
were observed in Antarctica. On UT day 5 Apr, geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be at G0 levels. G1 levels are expected on 6 
Apr due to 2 Apr CME. The effects may commence late on 5 Apr. 
Conditions are expected to subside to G0 levels on 7 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Good HF propagation conditions expected on 5 Apr. Possible 
mild degradations on 6 and 7 Apr. Shortwave fadeouts on daylight 
HF circuits are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
04 Apr    95

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    75    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
06 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values
07 Apr    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 2 
Apr and is current for 3-5 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 4 Apr were enhanced. Similar MUF conditions 
are expected for the next three days. Possible shortwave fadeouts 
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.3E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    5.8 p/cc  Temp:   180000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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