[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 September 21 issued 0023 UT on 24 Sep 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 24 10:23:07 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT - CORRECTED VERSION
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.8 0442UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.8 1528UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 90/34
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 92/37 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 23 September.
Currently there are 5 numbered regions on the visible solar disk.
AR2871 has produced two low M-class flares. The first flare,
which peaked at 23/0442 UT, was accompanied by a type II sweep
and a CME. Preliminary analysis shows that this CME may give
a glancing blow at the end of 25 September or on 26 September.
A CME associated with the second M-class flare, which peaked
at 23/1528 UT, is visible in STEREO data since 23/1638 UT. Its
analysis will be completed when more data are available. No other
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
data. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on 24-26
September. On 23 September the solar wind speed range was 360
km/s to 400 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) range was 2-9 nT and the
north-south IMF (Bz) varied mostly between 7 nT and -5 nT. For
24 September and most of 25 September, light to moderate solar
wind speeds are expected. The solar wind parameters may become
disturbed at the end of 25 September and/or on 26 September due
to expected CME effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22323211
Cocos Island 6 12322210
Darwin 8 22323221
Townsville 9 22323222
Learmonth 8 22323211
Alice Springs 7 12323211
Gingin 7 22322211
Canberra 6 12322210
Hobart 8 22432101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Sep :
Macquarie Island 9 12443000
Casey 9 24331102
Mawson 9 34322200
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 4243 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Sep 13 Unsettled to Active
26 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: On UT day 23 September, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly quiet to unsettled. In the Antarctic
region, quiet to active levels were observed. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 24 September. An increase in geomagnetic
activity up to unsettled and active levels is possible at the
end of 25 September and/or on 26 September due to expected glancing
blows of the two CMEs observed on 23 September. Isolated minor
storm periods are possible on 26 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions were observed
on 23 September. Mostly normal conditions with possible mild
to moderate short-wave fadeouts are expected for 24-26 September.
Mildly degraded conditions are likely on 26 September due to
expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
26 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 24 was issued on 23
September and is current for 23-25 Sep. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 23 September were mostly near predicted monthly
values. MUFs in the Australian region on 24-26 September are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 375 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 97400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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